Part of Georgia’s pro-Western opposition is calling on citizens to join a large-scale demonstration to topple the incumbent Georgian Dream (GD) government on October 4 – the day of the country’s impending municipal election.

The rally is being described a “peaceful revolution” with the aim to achieve a “peaceful overthrow of power”. What exactly will happen on the day remains unclear, and critics across the opposition spectrum are raising questions as to whether it is wise to place such high expectations on a single protest.

The opposition blocs planning the rally are boycotting the local vote and have also urged citizens to keep away from polls on October 4. They insist that to run would be to grant unfounded legitimacy to GD, which they accuse of rigging Georgia’s 2024 parliamentary election.

Several opposition groups, including the Lelo/Strong Georgia-For Georgia alliance, are running, however. They hope to take power in the capital Tbilisi where nightly anti-government protests have been ongoing for nearly a year.

The issue of whether to run in the local vote has divided GD’s opponents for months.

“When you are in opposition but do not run against the regime in elections, you are helping the regime strengthen its position,” declared one of the Lelo/Strong Georgia leaders, Salome Samadasvhili, recently, highlighting the totally opposing approaches the opposition are in the run up to October 4.

The plan for a mass rally on election day was first announced in late July by renowned Georgian opera singer and leader of the Rustaveli Avenue anti-government activist group, Paata Burchuladze. 

He has posed October 4 as a “day of historic victory” when the regime of the billionaire GD founder Bidzina Ivanishvili – the de facto ruler of Georgia – would be “peacefully overthrown”.

In comments to PalitraNews on September 15, Burchuladze said that the opposition would “hold the national assembly peacefully” and “take over the government peacefully”.

The opera singer further noted that GD had two options: “leave peacefully or resist and still leave” and warned the authorities to give the opposition the opportunity to “peacefully topple Bidzina Ivanishvili”.

Burchuladze predicted that the “power transfer” would be completed by 8pm on October 4, four hours after the rally is due to start.

A proposed cabinet would then be presented to the to the public and a technical government would be formed immediately, said Burchuladze.

He expects a turnout of 200,000-300,000 people across multiple undisclosed locations – the same levels as at the height of ongoing anti-government protests last November, right after GD suspended accession talks with the EU.

Imprisoned Georgian ex-president and honorary UNM chair, Mikheil Saakashvili – who himself led the bloodless Rose Revolution to take power from the Soviet-era leader Eduard Shevardnadze in 2003 – had stated in a letter posted on social media on September 19 there will be “no revolutionary unrest” following the October 4 action.

“We know how to act quickly to restore democracy and rule out any provocations after the ‘Kots’ [a nickname for GD members and supporters] are removed,” Saakashvili stated.

The Unity-UNM bloc – which comprises the UNM and Strategy Aghmashenebeli parties – has backed Burchuladze’s calls for action.

Former UNM chair Levan Khabeishvili had been actively promoting the October 4 rally, though he was recently detained after publicly promising huge financial rewards to police if they refused to disperse – and instead joined – protesters on election day.

Khabeishvili claimed his arrest is directly linked to the planned demonstration.  

The Lelo/Strong Georgia-For Georgia alliance, meanwhile, has urged citizens to head to the polls in the morning and then join the anti-government rally in the evening.

“These two paths, when you support the pro-Western opposition through the ballot and then rally on Rustaveli Avenue, do not oppose each other but rather strengthen the fight against Ivanishvili, weaken him and the Russian regime,” stated the Lelo/Strong Georgia mayoral candidate for Tbilisi, Irakli Kupradze.

Still others within the opposition argue that there can be no such thing as an “announced revolution”, and that it was irresponsible to call citizens to a rally with such high stakes.

"The 4 October rally is a good event. But it is wrong to instil such expectations in citizens. It does nothing to rebuild trust between voters and politicians. We fight until victory, not until some arbitrary October date,” said Tamar Chergoleishvili, one of the leaders of the Federalists opposition party.

David Chkheidze, a former civil servant and active protester who was fired from his job for his activism, noted that announcing the regime overthrow in advance gave the regime “time to prepare”.

Should the rally fail, he warned, it would plunge GD opponents – both politicians and protesters – into “despair and nihilism”, a state which would take a long time to reverse.

GD members have downplayed the opposition’s warnings that they intend to topple them.

Irakli Kobakhidze called Burchuladze’s remarks on the “peaceful overthrow” of the incumbent government “a non-serious statement by non-serious people”.

First deputy chair of the GD parliamentary faction, Levan Machavariani, has declared that “nothing” will happen on October 4, other than “some kind of chaos”, though warned the Georgian authorities would “now allow anyone to disrupt the country”.