The trial that Turkey had awaited for months was on September 15 postponed by the Ankara 42nd (Asliye Hukuk) civil court of first instance. It assigned the date of October 24 for the next hearing of the trial vital to the standing and future of Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

The court is examining whether alleged irregularities invalidate the CHP national congress held in November 2023. If the ruling is for an invalidation, the CHP’s leader, Ozgur Ozel, who was elected to his position at the congress, could be legally stripped of his chairmanship of the party.

Anticipation and tensions over the trial built after the Istanbul 45^th (Asliye Hukuk) civil court of first instance on September 2 appointed a board of trustees to take over the CHP’s provincial headquarters in Istanbul.

Ozel’s leadership to last at least until October 24

Given the hearing postponement, Ozel will stay in post at least until October 24. The unfinished court process, meanwhile, will keep the fate of the CHP top of Turkey’s agenda.

Interval to keep everyone happy

Turkey loves the bunk and baloney generated by this kind of tripe. Every single Turk up and down the country has an idea about what is really going on, what President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has planned and where he will take things from here.

Some Turks are sure that the CHP has nullified Erdogan’s attempt to take over the party apparatus. Other Turks are sure that the country’s leader of 22 years is simply taking his time preparing the public and foreign investors for an upcoming seizure of the CHP.

With the mix of data to hand (the various courts and hearing dates, the dates selected for new congresses and other dates in this interplay), it is possible for the observer to produce an infinite number of likely scenarios that could develop in the weeks ahead.

Yes, the Turks have a lot to play around with. They have no time to complain.

The finance industry and the foreign media are also happy with where things stand. The Borsa Istanbul is running wild, offering some good exploitable volatility, while the foreign media can look forward to writing plenty more clickable headlines.

Turkey’s five-year credit default swaps (CDS), which have hovered in the 250-300+ band in recent years, fell into the 250s from the 270s prior to the hearing that brought the postponement.

De facto impact of CHP extraordinary congress very much in question

On September 21, the CHP will hold an extraordinary congress. Party officials believe that this will void any possible trustee appointments made by courts to take over the CHP management. The regime may have other ideas.

On September 24, the CHP will hold a provincial congress in Istanbul.

A court-ordered board of trustees has been put in place as the official representatives of CHP Istanbul, but party representatives have said that they also believe that the provincial congress will eliminate the mandate of these trustees. We will see.

On September 26, the Istanbul 45th court will evaluate a ruling issued by the Ankara 3rd civil court of first instance. That particular court decided last week that provincial headquarters of political parties do not have legal identities that allow them to be tried.

After the Ankara 42nd court holds the next hearing of the main trial on October 24, the Ankara 26th civil court of first instance will on November 4 hold the next hearing in a criminal case targeting individuals, including jailed Istanbul mayor and chief political rival to Erdogan, Ekrem Imamoglu, as regards actions they took during the November 2023 CHP congress.

There are even more trials and dates in the period ahead. See the details here.

Bayrampasa mayor detained, Beykoz mayor went over to Erdogan

Meanwhile, the CHP mayor of Bayrampasa district in Istanbul was detained at the weekend, bringing the total number of jailed CHP mayors to 19. He was yet to be dismissed.

In another development, the CHP mayor of the city’s Beykoz district, who was elected by the city parliament after the mayor elected by citizens was dismissed, joined Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) last week.

So far, the government has taken over 12 CHP municipalities. See the details here.