Ukrainian drone strikes on two of Wildberries’ largest warehouses could leave Russia’s biggest online marketplace and its merchants facing losses of more than RUB100bn ($1.28bn), with independent sellers expected to bear the greater part of the damage, The Bell reported on July 20.

The attacks overnight at the weekend struck logistics centres in Elektrostal, east of Moscow, and Kotovsk in the Tambov region. Seven night-shift workers were killed in Kotovsk and another person later died after the Elektrostal attack, while more than 80 people were injured, according to Russian officials. Fires continued at the Elektrostal complex for more than a day.

The two centres formed an important part of Wildberries’ distribution system as well as providing a platform for the businesses of thousands of entrepreneurs. The Elektrostal facility was a principal hub serving Moscow and its surrounding region, while Kotovsk was a recently opened, highly automated regional centre capable of holding as many as 54mn items.

Using a conservative estimate of 250,000 square metres for Elektrostal and 108,000 square metres for Kotovsk, the facilities represented about 7% of the logistics estate of Wildberries and Russ, the merged group known as RWB, The Bell reported. The company had more than 200 logistics sites covering 5.2mn square metres at the end of 2025. Some estimates put the full Elektrostal complex at more than 360,000 square metres, implying that the affected share could be larger.

The loss will not paralyse Wildberries’ operations, but it is likely to put severe pressure on deliveries around Moscow, its most important market, and force the company to reroute millions of items through more distant warehouses.

The Bell estimated that rebuilding the two facilities alone could cost between RUB21bn and RUB35bn ($268mn-$447mn), based on construction costs of RUB60,000-RUB100,000 ($766-$1,277) per square metre. That calculation excludes the value of equipment, destroyed merchandise, lost revenue, logistics disruption and any compensation paid to merchants.

The direct cost should be manageable for RWB, which reported RUB175bn ($2.23bn) in net profit and gross merchandise value of RUB6.1tn ($77.9bn) in 2025. The group invested more than RUB310bn ($3.96bn) in logistics, IT infrastructure and new businesses during the year.

Merchants hit hardest

The larger financial threat falls on Wildberries’ sellers, many of which stored most or all of their inventory at Elektrostal.

“For many, Elektrostal served as their primary warehouse; for some sellers, the loss of goods spells the total collapse of their business and irreparable financial damage,” The Bell said.

Kirill Agapov, managing partner of Umbrella Consulting Group, told The Bell he estimated that combined losses from the two warehouse fires would exceed RUB100bn ($1.28bn), with merchants carrying most of the burden.

The previous large Wildberries warehouse fire provides a guide to the possible bill. A blaze at Shushary near St Petersburg in January 2024 caused an estimated RUB10bn-RUB12bn ($128mn-$153mn) of direct damage. Wildberries subsequently paid sellers RUB34.9bn ($446mn), covering about 95% of the assessed losses on their goods.

Applying a similar ratio to Elektrostal and Kotovsk would produce a compensation bill several times greater than the cost of reconstructing the buildings.

Wildberries has not disclosed the value of inventory destroyed or the extent of its insurance coverage. The Shushary case is not a clear precedent: the warehouse itself was widely reported to lack adequate property insurance, although Tatyana Kim, Russia’s richest woman and Wildberries’ co-founder and chief executive, later said that goods had been insured while in storage and transit.

Insurance coverage among sellers appears to be extremely limited. Insurance industry sources cited by Kommersant estimated that only 5-7% of Wildberries merchants had obtained their own policies, and that only 10-20% of those policies covered sabotage or military-related damage.

New terms and conditions

The uncertainty has been intensified by a change to Wildberries’ standard seller agreement that took effect on July 7, just 11 days before the attacks. The new terms exempt the company from liability for losses caused by “force majeure”, explicitly including artillery fire, drone and missile attacks, military equipment, political protests, strikes and riots.

Wildberries therefore appears to have no contractual obligation to reimburse merchants. However, Kim has said that the company is nevertheless working on compensation.

“Despite the emergency and the absence of an obligation to compensate for lost goods, we are already working out the volume of payments to sellers and other financial-support measures,” she said.

Kim said the company would conduct an “assessment to determine the payout amount for our sellers”, which could take as long as 30 days.

Initial measures fall short of direct compensation. Wildberries has offered temporary discounts on storage charges, free transfers of merchandise to some regional warehouses and accelerated payments of sales revenue.

WB Bank will provide affected small and medium-sized companies with up to six months’ deferral on debt repayments, as well as preferential loans. The bank has also said it will consider requests from affected merchants as a priority.

For sellers whose entire working capital was tied up in stock at Elektrostal, additional borrowing may only postpone insolvency. One electronics merchant said he had lost PlayStation consoles with a retail value of RUB10mn-RUB12mn ($128,000-$153,000) and was selling his car for RUB2.8mn ($36,000) to finance replacement inventory. Another seller said the combined effect of higher commissions and the warehouse losses had made trading through Wildberries commercially unviable.

Politically sensitive

The compensation decision has also become politically sensitive ahead of Russia’s State Duma elections on September 20. Wildberries provides the main route to market for tens of thousands of small manufacturers, importers and retailers, many of which could struggle to survive without assistance.

Even the state television programme Vesti Nedeli described Wildberries as a “people’s” business, claiming that Ukraine had targeted it to “pressure Russians with Western support” and cause “problems, including a psychological reaction among the public”.

Wildberries is unlikely to commit its entire annual profit to compensation. But transferring most of the losses to sellers risks bankruptcies, litigation and an exodus of merchants to rival marketplaces or their own distribution channels.

The attacks have exposed a structural weakness in the marketplace model: Wildberries controls the warehouses and logistics network, but much of the merchandise — and therefore much of the financial risk — belongs to its partners.

The goal of Bankova, Ukraine’s presidential administration, was likely to be exactly this: bring the war in Ukraine into the homes of regular Russians, who Russian President Vladimir Putin has been careful to insulate from his war until now. In a sign of how painful the warehouse strike was, Russia unleashed one of its most intense missile barrages on Kyiv the following day as the tit-for-tat missile war continues to intensify.