Russia carried out its largest ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv on the night of July 18, as the brutal tit-for-tat missile war continues to escalate.

“Last night’s attack was one of the largest Russian ballistic missile attacks to date. Kyiv and the Kyiv region were the Russians’ primary target,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his daily video address. “They had been preparing this attack for several days, stockpiling missiles. The threat, of course, remains even now, and this must be taken into account. Russia is placing its wagers on ballistic missiles, and it is because of them that Putin still believes in his war.”

Analysts say the strike that targeted residential buildings, retail outlets and petrol stations amongst other things, was in retaliation for Ukraine’s destruction of Russian e-commerce leader Wildberries’ warehouse just outside Moscow a day earlier. That attack was as much psychological as strategic and left seven dead and dozens wounded.

“The coward in Moscow, who is afraid to meet with President Zelenskiy to end the war, continues to wage a war against civilians,” acting Foreign Minister Andrii Swybiha said in a social media post. “Russia unleashed the largest number of ballistic missiles since the start of the war — around four dozen — in a brutal terrorist attack on the Ukrainian capital, killing and injuring people.”

Over the weekend, Moscow has been blanketed by thick black smoke that some on social media have likened the skies over Mordor. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy admitted that he had ordered the attack and claimed that Wildberries has also been selling military equipment, drone parts and other dual use items that were aiding the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

Russia launched more than 40 missiles of various types – most of them against the capital – and 120 attack drones. The majority of the missiles got through and hit their targets, whereas the majority of drones were shot down.

“As of now, one person has been reported killed in Kyiv and the region, and 16 others have been injured. My condolences to all their families and loved ones,” Zelenskiy said on social media. “Everyone affected is receiving the necessary medical care. Emergency response efforts are continuing at three locations, with nearly 600 first responders involved. The relevant services are also working in the Odesa region.”

In the last week Russia fired around 1,450 attack drones, more than 1,640 guided aerial bombs, and 99 missiles of various types against Ukraine, according to official Ukrainian numbers. People were injured in the Odesa region and Zaporizhzhia, and there was damage in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, Zelenskiy reported. In the same week, the Vinnytsia, Dnipro, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Cherkasy regions also came under Russian attack.

With the number of Patriot interceptor missile at rock bottom, Ukraine’s skies are currently open again to Russian bombardment and increasingly powerless to defend itself against these attacks.

“Protection against ballistic missiles is our constant and top priority right now,” Zelenskiy said. “Interceptors are needed every day, and I am grateful to everyone who takes our agreements seriously and ensures the delivery of anti-ballistic capabilities. Right now, these packages are literally saving lives during every massive Russian attack.”

Zelenskiy went on to emphasise that sanctions be cranked up to increase the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table, while taking a swipe at the EU’s stalled 21^st sanctions package, which has been blocked by Greek shipping vested interests.

“Delays in adopting new decisions give Moscow the opportunity to plan not only new attacks against our people, but also ways to circumvent new sanctions,” Zelenskiy said.

Sybiha called on Ukraine’s allies to increase the sanctions and isolation of Russia. “The 21st EU package must be unblocked now,” he said. “Everyone who is holding back these vital protection tools from delivery should know that the cost of delay is measured in human lives.”

Lack of air defence ammo

Ukraine’s ability to shield itself from Russian missile attacks is dwindling as it scrapes the barrel of its remaining interceptor stocks. While the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) has developed increasingly effective and numerous interceptor drones to counter Russian drones, it stocks of Patriot interceptor missiles is nearly exhausted leaving its skies open.

The problem is apparent in the success statistics in countering the July 18 attack that included Russia deployed 125 drones, 25 ballistic missiles, 10 Zirkon hypersonic missiles, and six other missiles until 2:38 a.m. local time as Russian forces pummelled the city with an unusually large number of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, Ukraine's Air Force reported, with most projectiles aimed at Ukraine's capital.. Ukraine shot down:

17 of 35 Iskander-M, S-400 & Zircon missiles;

1 of 3 Kh-59/69 missiles;

none of 3 Oniks missiles; and

108 of 125 drones.

In the Dniprovskyi district, a fire broke out in a dormitory building due to fallen debris, and smoke has been reported near a shopping centre, Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko reported.

"In the Desnyanskyi district, a strike hit the grounds of a commercial property. Vehicle fires have also been reported," he said, adding that a warehouse has also been set ablaze.

Fires broke out on the roof of a supermarket and a nearby residential building as a result of a Russian missile strike in Kyiv's Solomyanskyi district.

Debris fell near a nine-story building at another location in the district, shattering windows in the complex, Klitschko said, adding that one person was rescued from the second floor.

Several fires broke out at warehouse buildings and a logistics facility in Kyiv Oblast near the suburb of Bucha, the State Emergency Service said, reporting two injuries in the region, The Kyiv Independent reported.

Wildberries workers locked in

While Russians were outraged by the attack on the Wildberries’ warehouse, scandal unfolded following reports that management had refused to allow workers to evacuate from the burning building that increased the death and injured toll.

While Ukrainian drones were striking, the managers of the Elektrostal logistics centre prevented employees from leaving the premises.

Russian daily Kommersant reported that seven night-shift workers were amongst the dead after a drone the distribution centre in the Tambov Region, in Elektrostal outside Moscow.

One employee said: "The 'superiors' gathered us in block 10 instead of evacuating. They decided to follow their protocol or whatever..." When the neighbouring block 9 began to collapse, the executives bolted, forgetting their team, according to a report posted by Vajnye Istorii (Important Stories Media) on social media.

"The crowd rushed after them through a narrow passage with turnstiles. Some say people had to force the doors open by hand to get out."

Another employee and sister of a night-shift colleague recounted: "The warehouse is burning, we hear that blocks 4 and 6 are done for, and she [the manager] tells us: 'Calm down, no panic'... and she won't let anyone leave, even as the attacks continued. The employees had to open the loading door themselves and jump from there."

"We had to open the doors by hand... Maybe they were keeping us in so we wouldn't steal the goods," another witness recounted.

The injured were evacuated by local taxis, with ambulances refusing to enter the site because of the checkpoints.

Wildberries has admitted that "some employees were left without communication during the evacuation" and has opened a hotline for families.

Ukraine’s supporters condoned the attack, claiming that Wildberries supplies military equipment to support the war in Ukraine.

“Wildberries is no longer just an online marketplace for clothing and household goods. The platform sells weapons, body armour, drones, drone components, and fibre-optics used for drones,” Anton Gerashchenko, advisor to Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs and founder of the Institute of the Future, said in a social media post. “All of these items are used in the war against Ukraine and help kill Ukrainians. That is why such facilities are legitimate military targets for Ukraine's Armed Forces.”

Thousands of small businesses may have lost their stock with no guaranteed compensation, various Russian media outlets and bloggers report. One children’s clothing brand says all 12,000 of its items were stored at the Elektrostal site. Sellers say Wildberries changed its terms in early July to exclude compensation for losses caused by emergencies, drone attacks, falling debris or other military activity. It is unclear whether that applies to goods delivered before the new terms took effect. Wildberries says it's not legally obliged to compensate sellers but is considering financial support.

Wildberries, best described as a Russian version of Amazon, said it would pay compensation to the families of those killed and provide financial support to the seriously injured.

Air defences deteriorating

As IntelliNews reported, the asymmetry of the two attacks on Moscow and Kyiv highlight Russia’s growing lead in the drones vs missiles arms race. Not only is Ukraine’s ability to shoot down incoming missiles decreasing as the last interceptors are used up, Russia continues to introduce increasingly fast drones to its powerful missiles that can also evade less sophisticated anti-drone technology.

The use of its standard Geran-2 drone  drones has sharply declined, for three reasons as it is being replaced by the one-way Geran-4 drones, which are faster and more manoeuvrable, reports Clement Molin, a mapper and commentor on the Ukraine war.

Russia is extensively deploying other Geran drones closer to the front for mid-range strikes, but a drop in the use of Geran-2 could also be due to increasingly effective Ukrainian strikes on component factories or the evolution of interceptors. Russia has moved its drone factory to the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan far from the Ukrainian border.

But missile strikes are evolving, with very fast strikes (under 7 minutes), using S300/S400 and Iskander systems, particularly on Kyiv, reports Molin.

“The air alerts often arrive after the strikes,” he added. “With the widespread shortage of air defence missiles, these strikes are much more effective. These strikes are accompanied by a few Kinzhal missiles launched from aircraft, and the targets are mainly military or civilian factories/warehouses.”

Strikes employing strategic bombers remain much more predictable and occur several times a month. Overall, Russia isn't stockpiling reserves; it quickly uses its production. Strikes from ships have virtually disappeared.

The targets have also evolved, with a current focus on logistics (rail, road, energy), strikes on ports, and on warehouses behind the front lines.

The pressure on Ukraine is building as their air defence capability continues to deteriorate. Zelenskiy is due to travel to Paris on July 20 to meet European leaders and discuss the development of the FREYJA missile defence system.

“It is very important that our partners understand what is happening and that air defence missiles are needed to protect lives literally every single day. It is important to accelerate everything – both with our European partners and with the United States,” said in his regular address.