US President Donald Trump attempted an audacious yet near-impossible gambit by requesting that several Arab and Muslim countries join the Abraham Accords in exchange for signing a deal with Iran.

In a lengthy Truth Social post, Trump called on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan to join the Abraham Accords framework, which would effectively see these countries normalise ties with Israel.

This would form part of any potential agreement that Washington seals with Iran. While negotiators have claimed that a framework deal is 95% complete, US officials have warned that finalisation of an agreement has slowed down due to disputes over language concerning Iran’s nuclear programme and sanctions relief.

Any potential deal appears increasingly fragile after the US military launched fresh strikes on southern Iran, targeting Iranian missile sites and boats allegedly attempting to lay mines. US Central Command said the strikes were carried out in “self-defence” and were intended “to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.”

Trump’s attempt to draw Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan into the Abraham Accords could have its merits. While a deal where the US lifts sanctions on Iran and unfreezes assets could be seen as a form of capitulation, the inclusion of additional regional powers in the Abraham Accords could be seen as a worthy trade-off, strengthening the US alliance in the Middle East and South Asia.

Still, there are several notable roadblocks that make one such tradeoff immensely challenging to execute.

Firstly, Pakistan has already expressed its opposition to Trump’s proposal, becoming the first country to outright reject the prospect of joining the Abraham Accords.

In an interview with Samaa TV, Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif made a formal announcement. “Personally, I don’t think we should join any such accord that clashes with our fundamental ideologies,” Asif stated.

Aside from its hostility toward Israel, Pakistan would likely also look to protect its relations with Iran. The two countries share a long border and maintain strategic and economic ties, which could be compromised if Pakistan were seen by Iran to be “switching sides.” 

For Qatar, one such agreement also appears unfeasible. For years, Qatar has been seen as a diplomatic protector of Iran, obstructing US policy on Iran.

In addition to voting against sanctions on Iran for its nuclear programme in the UN Security Council in 2006, Qatar leveraged its ties with the US and Iran in August 2023 to facilitate hostage negotiations. In exchange for the release of five American hostages, the US released $6bn in sanctioned Iranian funds.

There is also the economic interest that Qatar holds with Iran. The Persian Gulf neighbours share ownership of the South Pars/North Dome natural gas condensate field, which is the largest natural gas field in the world.

Much like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia has appeared to perform a diplomatic balancing act. A Saudi source quoted by CNN claimed that the government would not sign onto the Abraham Accords without the recognition of a Palestinian state.

Reports claim that the Saudis attacked Iran in response to projectile strikes on Saudi soil, with the Saudis issuing numerous condemnations of Iranian attacks on GCC countries. Still, it has condemned Israel’s conduct in the Gaza war, consistently calling for a two-state solution in the process.

While Turkey may not have the reliance on Iran as the likes of Qatar and Pakistan do, the Erdoğan administration has explicitly voiced its disdain for Israel’s government. Turkey's Foreign Ministry claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was "the Hitler of our time", while President Recep Erdoğan has consistently accused Israel of war crimes in Gaza.

The reality of the situation is that for Pakistan or Qatar to follow in the footsteps of the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan in joining the Abraham Accords, the reliance on Iran as a key trade partner would have to be eroded. As for Turkey, the government has adopted a staunchly anti-Netanyahu posture that appears near impossible to backtrack. The country with the highest chance of joining the Accords appears to be Saudi Arabia, but even then, a significant shift in Israel’s stance toward a Palestinian state would have to be made. Given that Israel has become increasingly wary of Gaza from a security perspective in the post-October 7 world, any additions to the Abraham Accords from the aforementioned countries appear unlikely, to say the least.