The United States and Iran are within reach of a landmark nuclear agreement, with negotiators reporting that a framework deal is 95% complete, according to officials cited by Fox News on May 24.

Officials on both sides are cautioning that the final stretch of any negotiation is invariably the hardest. US president Donald Trump has issued contradictory messages in the last day on his Truth Social media and Tehran has disputed some of the claims Trump has made on the progress of the talks. Analysts worry that if the latest attempt to find some middle ground fails, hostilities could resume. Reportedly Trump is under intense pressure from Israel to limit the terms of any compromises and is insisting above all else that Iran’s ambitions to develop a nuclear weapon must be curtailed at all costs.

However, Tehran has agreed in principle to a framework for a new 60 days ceasefire agreement, US officials said, with two of the most consequential issues already settled.

"We have a deal on the nuclear stockpile and the Strait of Hormuz but are negotiating language," one official told Fox News — a formulation that will be closely parsed in capitals from Riyadh to Tel Aviv.

Agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply passes, would carry immediate implications for global energy markets. A second LNG tanker reportedly transitioned the strait at the weekend. Part of the agreement on the table is to allow another 30 tankers passage, but there is some confusion over if they will be required to pay the IRGC’s $2mn transit fee or not. The White House claims the fee will be dropped; the IRGC says it will remain in place.

Agreement on Iran's nuclear stockpile is a key point in the negotiations and an agreement would mark the first concrete limitation on Tehran's enrichment programme since the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The same official was careful, however, to temper expectations about the timeline. "We are not there yet on a deal," he said. "We are not going to sign a deal today or tomorrow."

The final week

The remaining sticking points are understood to centre on the precise language of the agreement rather than its substance — a distinction that experienced diplomats will recognise as encouraging. Both sides are aware that the gap between a framework and a signed text is still large.

The official briefing Fox News said he believed President Donald Trump would give the negotiations an additional five to seven days to reach a final agreement.

Trump said that the agreements with Iran had not yet been fully finalised and that he had instructed his negotiators "not to rush into a deal" with Tehran as he tries to balance the competing pressures. In addition to external pressure from Israel, US House members are also split on the deal largely along party lines, with Republicans supporting a deal and Democrats against what they see as a capitulation.

For Iran, Trump’s comment suggests Washington is serious but not desperate. For American negotiators, it preserves room to push on the remaining language without the pressure of an imminent deadline.

Looming conflict renewal

If Washington fails to reach a favourable deal within the window, the US military could resume bombing Iran, the official suggested. Both sides have used the current temporary ceasefire to rearm and resupply their forces after a devastating two months of campaigning. Flight tracking information shows that the US has been flying large cargo C14 planes into the Middle East to restock its forces and Trump periodically makes explicit threats of resuming the military offensive.

But there are many obstacles still to overcome. Any agreement on freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will require verification mechanisms and Iran will need to clear the mines it has already laid in the narrow waterway. Critically a deal will also require a buy-in from the Gulf states whose energy exports depend on it. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others have been watching the US-Iran talks with a mixture of hope and anxiety, putting their own security arrangements with Washington into flux.