Tokayev for first time discusses power struggle said to lie behind Kazakhstan’s “Bloody January”

Tokayev for first time discusses power struggle said to lie behind Kazakhstan’s “Bloody January”
Tokayev issued a shoot-to-kill order as violent elements among the protesting crowds wrought destruction across Almaty and other locations. / Ilya Varlamov, cc-by-sa 1.0
By bne IntelIiNews January 4, 2024

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has for the first time elaborated on some of the unresolved details of the January 2022 unrest, known in Kazakhstan as the "Bloody January" events.

While attributing the eruption of public anger seen in Bloody January to longstanding socio-economic issues that had accumulated over the years, Tokayev—in a lengthy interview with Kazakh state-run newspaper Egemen Qazaqstan—also suggested that the unrest was instigated by "influential individuals" who were displeased with the changes in the country's political landscape following his appointment as acting president by predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev in 2019.

Tokayev, who was subsequently elected president later that year, noted that these unnamed individuals perceived the changes as a threat to the established power structures after three decades of Nazarbayev rule and aimed to revert to the previous situation that was more favourable to them. He alleged that this group of high-ranking officials held considerable sway over the power structures of the oil-rich country as well as criminal elements and sought to seize power by force.

The comments made by Tokayev mark the first time he has frankly admitted that he concedes there was a power struggle behind the political unrest. Previously, he has blamed the events on “terrorists”. In the interview, he also specifically focused on elites close to Nazarbayev, rather than Nazarbayev himself.

Tokayev’s current claims align with information shared with bne IntelliNews by individuals familiar with the matter back in 2022, which pointed to specific persons within Nazarbayev’s family and among his allies, who were interested in removing Tokayev. They are also consistent with views shared with this publication that Nazarbayev himself was not attempting to usurp Tokayev after having appointed him three years before.  

Tokayev, citing investigations by the Prosecutor-General's Office, claimed that a conspiratorial group initiated preparations about six months before the nationwide protests of January 2022. He further alleged that "extremists, criminal groups, and religious extremists" collaborated to orchestrate a coup—the involvement of criminal groups connected to individuals in Nazarbayev’s family in the unrest was also suggested to bne IntelliNews in 2022. As for moves against religious extremists, 10 members of the banned extremist group Yakyn Inkar were arrested in connection with the January events but there have been no similar actions. 

Tokayev also claimed in the interview that he had informed Nazarbayev that the political “hubris” of his close associates had nearly brought about the country's destruction, though he did not specify whom those associates might be. This conversation with Nazarbayev has not previously been disclosed by Tokayev.

As the Bloody January unrest spread, Tokayev issued a shoot-to-kill order to security forces. At least 230 individuals lost their lives in the disorder and mayhem. Tokayev has faced criticism for not living up to his pledge to publicly answer questions about the chapter.

In the interview, Tokayev also suggested that Kazakhstan, which regularly faces criticism for imprisoning journalists and civil and political activists, does not have a single political prisoner.

He claimed that "our legislation does not contain a single decree, a single law, a single regulatory document that provides a basis for prosecuting citizens for their political views".

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