Russia's Rassvet satellites, operated by Bureau 1440, now provide at least two communication windows of more than an hour each per day over Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian outlet Militarnyi, citing satellite communications expert Volodymyr Stepants, and cited by military analyst Rob Lee on August 1.

As of July 31, 12 of the 16 satellites launched in late March had reached their operational altitude of 550km, with three more gradually ascending and one lost, presumably due to a manufacturing defect. Although the constellation passes over Ukraine four times a day, only two or three passes are high enough to establish reliable links with ground terminals, creating communication windows lasting between one and one-and-a-half hours.

During these periods Russian forces can reportedly control Geran-2 drone, based on the Iranian-designed Shahed-136 loitering munition, as well as Geran-3 and Geran-4 drones, naval drones and other strike assets without relying on more vulnerable terrestrial communications networks.

The constellation has now gone live as Russia moves to replace Elon Musk's Starlink, access to which Russian forces lost early in the war. The new system gives Russian forces a steadier communications link over the battlefield, improving coordinated drone operations and command-and-control against Ukrainian positions.

The rollout is continuing rapidly. A second batch of 16 Rassvet satellites was launched at the end of July and, if deployment continues at the current pace, is expected to become operational by October or November, adding another two daily communication windows over Ukraine. Ukrainian analysts estimate that by March 2027 Russia could have launched a fourth batch of satellites, with the constellation approaching near-continuous coverage by the summer of 2027.

While Russia remains years behind SpaceX's Starlink in both scale and overall capacity, analysts argue that Moscow does not require global coverage to gain a battlefield advantage. Predictable communication windows lasting several hours each day may be sufficient to support coordinated drone swarms, Lancet loitering munitions, sea drones and long-range strike operations during key operational periods.

The development is seen in Kyiv as an important shift in the technological balance of the war. Ukraine gained a significant advantage after Russian forces lost access to Starlink, forcing them to rely on fibre-optic links and commercial satellite systems that proved less reliable under combat conditions. Rassvet is intended to restore that lost capability.

Ukrainian military commentators argue that the window for countering the new constellation is measured in months rather than years. They say Ukraine should prioritise the development of counter-space capabilities, satellite disruption technologies and redundant low-latency communications networks before the constellation expands towards continuous coverage. Although the loss of one satellite and Russia's relatively slow production rate demonstrate that the programme still faces technical constraints, analysts warn that Moscow needs only sufficient coverage to support operations during critical periods rather than a Starlink-sized network.