Global electric car sales rebounded sharply in the second quarter of 2026, rising 35% quarter-on-quarter to record levels in 50 countries, even as overall car sales fell around 5% y/y in the first half of the year on weaker demand in China and the US, according to the International Energy Agency's report "Electric Car Markets in a Time of Uncertainty", published on July 30.

The rebound comes in the midst of weak car markets depressed by low growth and rising inflation. First-quarter EV sales had fallen, largely reflecting the same China/US weakness dragging down the wider market, before snapping back hard enough in the second quarter that EVs finished 1H26 only slightly below 1H25 levels.

The IEA ties the rebound directly to the Middle East conflict and the fuel-price volatility it has revived: road vehicles account for nearly half of global oil use, and the energy crisis has renewed policy and consumer interest in electrification precisely where oil-import exposure is highest.

More than 90 countries recorded y/y growth in electric car sales in 1H26, and in Australia, Brazil, India, South Korea and Vietnam sales roughly doubled between March and June compared with the same period in 2025. EVs accounted for 24% of global car sales in 1H26, and the IEA now expects the full-year share to reach 29% - a percentage point higher than its own Global EV Outlook 2026 forecast published in May.

China is the exception pulling the other way. Total car sales there fell more than 20% y/y in 1H26 - around 2.5mn fewer cars, roughly equivalent to the UK and Netherlands' combined 2025 sales - and the IEA expects Chinese EV sales to stagnate in 2026 compared with 2025, the first such stall this decade, even as EVs are set to exceed 60% of China's total car sales, an all-time high.

Chinese manufacturers are compensating by exporting the surplus. Car exports from China grew 65% y/y in 1H26, limiting the domestic production decline to around 6%; electric car exports grew faster still, up more than 120% and fully offsetting the fall in domestic EV sales, lifting EVs' share of China's car exports from around 35% in 2025 to more than 45% in 1H26. The IEA estimates China's 1H26 EV exports almost matched the whole of 2025's total, with only around two-thirds of that stock sold on - leaving over 1mn Chinese-made electric cars still available for global buyers.

The scale of that export wave is already visible, as IntelliNews reported: Tesla has fallen to sixth place among vehicle exporters from China, overtaken by domestic Chinese brands now shipping EVs abroad at scale, while Russia's own EV sales have jumped as its domestic fuel crisis deepens, a smaller-scale echo of the same oil-price-driven shift toward electrification the IEA describes globally. With China and other emerging economies expected to account for roughly 60% of global car demand over the next decade, the report argues that success in exactly these markets - not in Europe or North America - will determine which carmakers end up leading the transition.

Global new car sales by powertrain, 2000-2026. Source: IEA, "Electric Car Markets in a Time of Uncertainty", licence CC BY 4.0.