Russian forces have made significant territorial advances across several fronts in eastern Ukraine since July, and the battle for the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk is still raging after the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) threw its elite reserves into the fight to prevent its fall to the Russians.

The tempo of the conflict in Donbas has soared. The Armed Forces of Russia (AFR)'s progress previously measured in metres gave way to breakthroughs measured in kilometres in August, according to battlefield reports and Ukrainian sources.

Along the Pokrovsk axis, what began as a limited push has evolved into a dramatic breach of Ukrainian defensive lines. By mid-August, Russian assault groups were reported to have entered parts of Pokrovsk city and the nearby strategic town of Rodninskoye. Ukrainian sources acknowledged that their infantry presence in the area “has all but collapsed,” with defence efforts increasingly reliant on drone warfare.

Russian forces have been unable to secure Rodninskoye due to intense Ukrainian fire, Kyiv and then an AFU response by deploying all available reserves, including the veteran Azov regiment. According to limited reports, Ukrainian units temporarily unblocked the Dobropolye–Konstantinovka road that supplies the city and partially recaptured nearby towns of Zolotoy Kolodez. However, the situation remains fluid and hard information scarce.

On the Liman and Seversk fronts — located in the northeastern part of Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, while Pokrovsk lies significantly to the southwest of them – previously considered secondary, Russian forces have pushed up to 4km through heavily forested terrain, aiming to sever supply routes to Liman by capturing key roads north of the Seversky Donets River. The city, with a prewar population of 20,000, had been recaptured by Ukrainian forces in October 2022 but has since been retaken by the AFR.

Further south, the Chasov Yar and Konstantinovka axes have also seen Russian progress. Chasov Yar has reportedly fallen to the AFR and the encirclement of Konstantinovka “from three sides is now largely complete,” according to milbloggers, with advancing units likely to secure the high ground and threaten the city’s last major supply route via Druzhkovka.

In the South Donetsk axis, Russian troops have reportedly pushed across the administrative boundary into the Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time last week, Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) admitted, reducing Ukrainian-held territory to a single small village in the area.

Military experts say Russia’s push into the region has created a buffer zone on the border and that as fighting winds down, the AFR will switch to a more defensive posture along the border.

Peace talks

Putin demanded that Ukraine withdraw its forces from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions during the Alaska summit with US President Donald Trump on August 15, in return for Russia freezing its military positions in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

According to sources briefed on the discussion, the Russian president’s offer would see Moscow cease offensive operations in southern Ukraine, while consolidating gains in the Donbas. The demand underscores the Kremlin’s goal of fully occupying of Donbas over advancing across the Dnipro River into western Ukraine.

“Russia remains intent on occupying all of Donbas, while other parts of the front are seemingly less important to Putin,” according to a commentary by Meduza. “The prospect of seizing the city of Zaporizhzhia or the Kherson region now appears to have been set aside.”

Russian forces have seized more than 4,000 square kilometres of entrenched Ukrainian positions in Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukrainian forces continue to hold approximately 6,000 square kilometres of territory in Donbas, but the balance has shifted, says Meduza. Even while diverting major units to address cross-border attacks in Russia’s Kursk region, Moscow has managed to press forward along the key axes in eastern Ukraine.

The land-swap deal suggested by the Kremlin opens up the possibility of a peace deal as it is a narrowing of Russia’s immediate objectives in the war. The future of any negotiation, however, remains contingent on both military dynamics and the form of the security guarantees Ukraine’s western allies propose.