Romania's trade deficit up by 59% y/y in Q3

Romania's trade deficit up by 59% y/y in Q3
/ bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews November 10, 2022

Romania's trade deficit (goods only) increased to nearly €9.6bn in Q3, or by 59% y/y, the statistics office announced.

The monthly data reveals a certain moderation, in the sense of a comparatively smaller deficit in September (+43% y/y), reflecting softening private demand and economic activity — the trends that shaped the economic landscape in the whole of H2.

Exports increased by 31% y/y to €24.0bn and imports rose by 38% y/y to €33.6bn, in Q3.

Growth of Romania’s foreign trade (exports, imports and deficit) accelerated in the third quarter of the year, partly driven by the prices rising globally, particularly energy prices (nominal effect) and this is expected to continue in Q4 — before slowing down in 2023 and in the following years. The trade gap is expected to keep growing at significant rates in the next few years, though.

Exports and imports in the 12-month period to September increased by nearly 23.8% y/y and 28.7% y/y — compared to 24.3% y/y and 30.2% y/y rates projected by the state forecasting body CNP for the whole year.

The trade gap in the 12-month period was just under €32bn — compared to €35.2bn projected for 2022. From a 49% y/y advance this year, Romania’s trade gap is expected to grow by only 18% y/y in 2023 and 9% y/y in 2024. 

Romania’s 12-month GDP at the end of June was €260bn.