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Could it be Goodbye Dubai, Hello Istanbul?

IntelliNews Turkey desk April 18, 2026

International investors unnerved by events in the Gulf may look to relocate. Turkey might seem a good choice – but things are rather more complicated than that.

Ankara proposes grand rewiring of Middle East energy export map amid Hormuz blockade

Ben Aris in Berlin April 17, 2026

Turkey wants to see a slew of Gulf and other pipelines converge on its territory to ensure the world will never again be cut off from sufficient oil and gas.

IMF the first to improve Russia’s growth outlook on Iran war windfall

Ben Aris in Berlin April 15, 2026

The International Monetary Fund has become the first institution to raise its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2026 in anticipation of the windfall it is expected to earn from the effects of the Iran war related spike in energy prices.

World leaders head to Beijing, as China becomes geopolitical fulcrum

Ben Aris in Berlin April 15, 2026

The Trump administration’s being ostracized by the international community for America’s war mongering. That is making China a fulcrum in the East-West clash that now has its centre of gravity in the Middle East.

IMF the first to improve Russia’s growth outlook on Iran war windfall

Ben Aris in Berlin April 15, 2026

The International Monetary Fund has become the first institution to raise its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2026 in anticipation of the windfall it is expected to earn from the effects of the Iran war related spike in energy prices.

COMMENT: The US and Israel ostracised by the global community

Ben Aris in Berlin April 14, 2026

For most of the first year of the Trump administration, America’s so-called western allies spent most of their time flattering, toadying and attempting to manipulate the US President’s ego. That time is over.

Kremlin flags Hormuz risk, cautious on Magyar victory in Hungarian elections

Ben Aris in Berlin April 14, 2026

The Kremlin has warned that a potential US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would deliver a direct shock to global markets, even as Moscow positions itself as both an energy anchor and a diplomatic intermediary in a rapidly widening crisis.

COMMENT: The US naval blockade of Iran won't work

Ben Aris in Berlin April 13, 2026

The US is moving to choke Iran’s oil lifeline. The market is starting to price something much bigger because the Trump administration naval blockade of Iran is not going to work.

Trump orders naval blockage of Iran in a new shockwave for energy markets

Ben Aris in Berlin April 12, 2026

Following the collapse of ceasefire talks this weekend US President Donald Trump has ordered a full naval blockade of shipping into and out of the Persian Gulf.

US naval showdown with Iran in strait of Hormuz

Ben Aris in Berlin April 11, 2026

As talks got underway in Islamabad between Iran and the US to find a ceasefire formula, a dramatic showdown was playing out in the Strait of Hormuz, as several US Navy vessels attempted to sneak through and exit the Persian Gulf,

Naphtha shortages leading to petrochemical plants force majeures and record prices

Ben Aris in Berlin April 10, 2026

Petrochemical producers across Asia have begun shutting down operations after disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reduced supplies of the critical naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) feedstocks.

Iran's military warns forces 'on the trigger' as Islamabad talks set to begin

bne IntelliNews April 10, 2026

Iran's central military command says forces remain "on the trigger" and vows to keep control of the Strait of Hormuz, hours before US-Iran ceasefire talks are due to begin at Islamabad's Serena Hotel.

US-Iran ceasefire eases oil prices but Gulf economies showing strain – Oxford Economics

Ben Aris in Berlin April 10, 2026

A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has led to a sharp fall in oil prices, but fresh data points to mounting economic damage across Gulf economies and rising uncertainty in Egypt.

US-Europe relations strains bring Nato alliance close to breaking point

Ben Aris in Berlin April 8, 2026

The West is discussing a new defence alliance format to replace Nato that would include Ukraine. Nato's current form is ineffective, so it is worth creating a new defence structure.

Ukraine’s hope for a peace deal with Russia rekindled by Iran ceasefire

Ben Aris in Berlin April 8, 2026

Ukraine’s hopes for restarting peace talks with Russia have been rekindled after a two-week ceasefire deal in Iran was agreed on April 7.

Oman rules out transit fees in Strait of Hormuz despite ceasefire proposal

Ben Aris in Berlin April 8, 2026

Oman has said it will not impose the $2mn transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz that were part of the two-week ceasefire deal agreed on April 7, reaffirming its adherence to longstanding international agreements.

Ceasefire: Iran, US agree to two-week Gulf War pause and 10-point plan

Ben Aris in Berlin April 8, 2026

In a last-minute deal, US President Donald Trump pulled the world back from the brink of a massive escalation in the Gulf War and announced he had agreed to a two week suspension of military operations against Iran after he agreed to a 10-point plan.

Meloni visits Gulf to cement Italy's energy ties as European rift with US over Iran widens

bne IntelliNews April 7, 2026

Italian PM Giorgia Meloni concluded a two-day tour of the Persian Gulf on April 4, meeting the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in an effort to shore up Italy's energy security as Iranian attacks on GCC countries continue.

Iranian crude trades at a premium to Brent after US waives sanctions

Ben Aris in Berlin April 7, 2026

Iranian Light crude is trading at a $1 premium to the benchmark Brent price since the US waived a sanctions-ban on buying Iran crude already at sea to ease prices on the international market.

Russia shares Israel key power sector targeting intelligence for a possible Iranian Power Day retaliation

Ben Aris in Berlin April 7, 2026

With US President Donald Trump’s Power Day deadline looming, where he has promised to do “irreversible damage” to Iran's power grid, Russia has reportedly provided Iran with intelligence of the weaknesses of Israel’s power system.

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