Poland’s economy is expected to remain among the European Union’s strongest performers in 2026,  second only to tiny Malta, with GDP growth forecast at 3.5%, as momentum from the previous year offsets the expected drag from turmoil in the Middle East, according to the spring forecast from the European Commission.

Growth is projected to ease from 3.6% in 2025, when private consumption was the main driver, the Commission noted, in the forecast, published on May 21.

In 2026, stronger growth momentum carried over from 2025 is expected to broadly offset the assumed negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Public and private consumption growth is set to slow, with households affected by weaker real disposable income growth due to higher energy prices and moderating wages.

Investment, meanwhile, is forecast to provide a stronger contribution in 2026, reflecting higher absorption of EU funds, especially in the final year of the Recovery and Resilience Facility, and a rising share of domestically produced components in new defence spending. 
Net exports are expected to remain a drag on growth, however, the Commission said.

GDP growth is forecast to slow to 2.8% in 2027, with private consumption remaining a key driver but contributing less than in previous years. Investment and public consumption are expected to weaken as EU fund absorption declines, while the negative contribution from net exports is set to narrow as exports rise.

Employment is projected to remain broadly stable, with unemployment at about 3%. The decline in the labour supply caused by demographics is expected to be partly offset by additional workers from abroad. Nominal compensation growth per employee is forecast to slow from 8% in 2025 to about 6% in 2027.

Inflation, measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices, is expected to rise to 3.6% in 2026 from 3.3% in 2025, driven by higher energy inflation, before easing to 2.9% in 2027.

Poland’s general government deficit widened to 7.3% of GDP in 2025 due to higher spending on military equipment, public sector wages and social benefits. It is projected to narrow to 6.5% in 2026 and 6.3% in 2027, while public debt is forecast to rise from 59.7% of GDP in 2025 to 68.3% in 2027.

The possible extension of temporary measures aimed at lowering fuel prices, alongside political risks in the national legislative process for some of the planned revenue-increasing measures, pose downside risks to the fiscal forecast for 2026 and 2027, according to the Commission.

Conversely, the planned introduction of a windfall tax on energy producers in 2026 and potential tax increases in 2027, as announced in the 2026 Annual Progress Report, present upside risks to the forecast, the Commission also said.