Mexico’s state-owned oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) has unveiled a substantial financial strategy aimed at boosting investment capacity and mitigating its reliance on public funds, while experts continue to underline the urgent need for comprehensive operational restructuring.

As reported by El Economista, a new investment fund totalling MXN250bn ($13.4bn) has been established through the National Infrastructure and Public Services Bank (Banobras). The fund forms part of Pemex’s Strategic Plan 2025–2035 and seeks to finance high-return projects without adding to the company’s debt. Development banks will contribute at least half of the fund, with the remainder sourced from commercial banks and investors through structured financial instruments. This mechanism is designed to avoid pressuring Mexico’s public debt ceiling or compromising fiscal stability.

Banobras Director Jorge Mendoza Sánchez stated that these funds will support priority ventures intended to enhance revenue flows. The projects will serve as self-liquidating mechanisms, as future income from each initiative will finance its own obligations.

President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed that the federal government will continue to assist Pemex with debt servicing until 2026. However, by 2027, the administration anticipates Pemex will be self-sufficient, managing its amortisations and capital expenditure in production, refining, petrochemicals, and emerging business areas.

According to the Ministry of Finance (SHCP), led by Edgar Amador Zamora, the plan targets a 25% reduction in Pemex’s debt by the end of the current administration, compared to 2018 levels. The firm’s financial liabilities would fall from $105.8bn to approximately $77.3bn by 2030. Part of this strategy includes the recent issuance of $12bn in pre-capitalised notes, backed by US Treasury bonds. These instruments would allow the company to prepay commitments in 2025 and 2026 without raising Mexico’s public debt, barring default.

Yet despite these efforts, energy sector analysts consulted by El Financiero remain sceptical. Oscar Ocampo of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) pointed out the urgent need to enhance liquidity and address falling output, which is reportedly declining at an annual rate of 10%. He warned that the announced 11 projects, adding just 60,000 barrels per day, will be insufficient to reverse the production decline.

Marcial Díaz of ARSE echoed the call for deeper reform, suggesting Pemex must conduct politically difficult measures, such as closing underperforming refineries and attracting private capital through joint ventures and farm-outs. With four of Pemex’s six refineries operating below half capacity and labour liabilities exceeding MXN1.2 trillion, Díaz described the firm’s current position as unsustainable.

The plan, while positively received by markets as reflected in Fitch Ratings’ recent upgrade to 'BB' of Pemex on stronger government support, remains a financial reconfiguration rather than a structural overhaul. Analysts agree that without decisive operational reengineering, the long-term viability of Pemex remains uncertain.