Global renewable energy capacity is on course to double by 2030, reaching 4,600 GW—comparable to the current combined total of China, the European Union and Japan—according to the International Energy Agency’s Renewables 2025 report published on October 14.

The report highlights a surge in solar capacity, which is expected to double over the next five years, driven by declining costs and improved permitting frameworks.

“Solar PV accounts for three-quarters of the upgrade in forecast renewable capacity additions,” the IEA said, citing improved policies and market conditions.

Wind energy is also projected to nearly double by the end of the decade, surpassing 2,000 GW, although growth is constrained by persistent supply chain challenges and inflationary pressure on capital costs.

Despite the headline growth, the IEA has revised its forecast downward by 5% from its 2022 estimate, citing slower policy progress in China and reduced momentum in the United States. “The downward revision is mainly due to lower expectations for China’s onshore wind and distributed solar PV and the United States’ large-scale solar PV and onshore wind projects,” the report stated.

China is set to remain the dominant force in global renewables expansion , accounting for nearly 60% of new capacity expected through 2030.

The IEA noted that China may reach its own 2030 solar and wind targets as early as 2025. India and the EU are also identified as key growth markets, while the United States risks falling behind. “China, India and the EU remain the main drivers of growth, while the United States is losing ground due to political uncertainty,” the IEA reported.

The Trump administration is openly hostile to renewables and has gutted the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of its Obama-era "endangerment finding” – a scientific conclusion that is the legal basis for US climate regulations. That decision will stymie investment into renewables, as the US president focuses on boosting oil and gas production in defiance of the global effort to reduce dependency on fossil fuels.

The report warns that despite rapid deployment, the pace of renewables expansion is still insufficient to align with the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.

“The world is not on track to meet the tripling goal,” it said, referring to the COP28 ambition of tripling global renewables capacity by 2030. To close the gap, the IEA calls for faster permitting, stronger grid infrastructure investment, and clearer policy commitments—especially in emerging and developing economies.

Scientists continue to warn of rising climate risks, with global temperatures now 1.3–1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. The IEA noted that while renewable growth is encouraging, the world remains far from curbing the most severe impacts of climate change. “While renewables are expanding rapidly, fossil fuel use is not declining fast enough to limit warming,” the agency stated.