Bolivia is heading towards its first-ever presidential runoff on October 19, a pivotal election that pits two veteran politicians, the centrist Rodrigo Paz Pereira of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) and conservative ex-president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga of the Libre alliance, against each other amid a severe economic downturn and the disintegration of the once-dominant Movement Towards Socialism (MAS).

The two candidates advanced to the second round after the August 17 vote, where Paz secured 32.02% and Quiroga 26.7%. Surveys by Ipsos-Ciesmori for Unitel now show Quiroga leading with roughly 45% support, ahead of Paz with 37%, though poll accuracy has proven unreliable in Bolivia, as seen when Paz, initially trailing in third place, unexpectedly won the first round.

The runoff marks a decisive break from two decades of left-wing rule under controversial former president Evo Morales and his successor Luis Arce. Morales, who governed from 2006 to 2019, has since parted ways with Arce and was excluded from this election by court rulings. He has recently launched his own movement, “Evo Pueblo”, but declined to endorse any candidate, calling both Paz and Quiroga representatives of a “neoliberal bloc”. The implosion of MAS, Morales’ former party that dominated Bolivian politics for nearly twenty years, effectively ended the country’s progressive cycle, leaving the political field open to the centre and right.

The economy, however, remains the overriding concern. Bolivia faces 23% annual inflation, acute shortages of fuel and foreign currency, and a plummeting gas export sector that once sustained the state budget. Both candidates have pledged rapid stabilisation, yet their methods diverge sharply. Quiroga proposes a “shock therapy” worth $12bn in international financing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other lenders to restore liquidity and rebuild confidence. Paz rejects what he calls “begging abroad”, instead advocating sweeping public spending cuts, an end to corruption, and the creation of a “capitalism for all” programme with cheap credit for entrepreneurs, tax reductions, and the redistribution of 50% of the national budget to Bolivia’s nine regions.

During their sole televised debate, the pair clashed over how to obtain dollars and maintain fuel subsidies. Paz argued that excessive state spending had drained reserves and vowed to eliminate unnecessary expenditure worth $1.5bn, while Quiroga insisted that the fuel crisis required external currency inflows: “You can’t fill petrol stations with bolivianos,” he said. Both agreed on gradually phasing out subsidies, preserving them initially for vulnerable sectors such as public transport.

Ideologically, Paz presents himself as pragmatic, refusing political labels. Born in Spain, the 58-year-old economist and son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora has portrayed himself as a moderate reformer, travelling across hundreds of municipalities to build a grassroots image. His running mate, ex-police officer Edman Lara, adds a populist tone to the ticket. Quiroga, 65, by contrast, embodies technocratic conservatism: a former IBM engineer, marathon runner and longtime opponent of Morales, he frames his campaign as a crusade for democracy and economic order. He has promised to make Bolivia a “global lithium power” and to “bring the dollars back” to end the cash and fuel shortages paralysing industry.

The contrast extends to their support bases. According to El País, Quiroga draws backing from urban middle and upper classes in Santa Cruz and Cochabamba, while Paz dominates in the Andean west, appealing to small traders and regional leaders disillusioned with socialist rule and seeking decentralisation. With neither enjoying overwhelming dominance, the outcome may hinge on voters who abandoned MAS in August and on the 13% still undecided, according to CNN.

Whichever candidate prevails on Sunday will inherit not only an economy in turmoil but a fractured political system no longer anchored by the populist consensus that defined Bolivia’s last twenty years. The next administration, analysts say, will need to rebuild credibility abroad while navigating a restless electorate at home, a delicate balancing act that will test the country’s democratic resilience.