Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has gone on the record about his dissatisfaction with the level of Russia-Central Asia trade and investment, suggested some avenues for improving the figures at the second Central Asia-Russia Summit held in Tajik capital Dushanbe on October 10.

While, since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine in early 2022, most international attention has been fixed on efforts to develop East-West trade transit routes avoiding Russia that link China and Europe/Turkey via Central Asia and the Caucasus, Putin, as per Azattyk, noted Russia’s readiness to create new logistics and transport chains together with the five countries of Central Asia on both East-West and North-South routes.

The final communique of the summit states that the Central Asian countries and Russia have agreed they will develop the North-South corridor.

Putin—who, with some dissatisfaction, said annual Russia-Central Asia trade stood at $45bn while Russian investments in the region amounted to around $20bn—also referred to the ongoing modernisation of outdated hydroelectric power systems of Central Asia, saying: "Russian companies are ready to participate in the construction of new hydroelectric power plants, as well as in projects to ensure the safe operation of water and energy infrastructure and the rational use of water resources and transboundary rivers.”

Distracted by the war in Ukraine, Russia has lost ground in trade, investment and geopolitics in Central Asia, with China, Europe, the US and also Turkey all exploiting the situation to firm and build up their links with the five “Stans”.

The Dushanbe summit naturally brought more discussion of this by now well-worn theme.

Kremlin “worried” by Turkic developments

Political analyst Mars Sariev, speaking to Azattyk, noted that the Central Asian countries are too entangled in their economic relations with Russia to make any major break from Moscow, but added that the Russians feel a need to prevent the region from drifting towards any kind of anti-Russian stance.

Tajikistan, which is Persian-speaking, is the only one of the Central Asian countries that is not Turkic-speaking, and Sariev observed: "The Kremlin is now worried. Didn't the [recent] summit of Turkic states take place in Gabala, [in Turkic-speaking] Azerbaijan? The fact that the Turks are united is alarming.

“That is why the summit was held in Dushanbe in the format of ‘Russia-Central Asia’. There, Putin tried to improve the situation by reaching an agreement with [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev [following their fall-out over Russia’s accidental shooting down of an Azerbaijani passenger jet].

“He is trying to establish constructive cooperation with the Turkic organisation so that Central Asia does not slip out of Russia's hands. Now Russia has no leverage. You see, when talking with Azerbaijan about the plane crash, Putin himself looked Aliyev in the eye. That is why he understands that the Turkic organisation has recovered, and now it is necessary to talk to it. Now it is not like before, ‘older brother, younger brother’. In order not to deviate to the West, and besides, Turkey is a member of Nato. That is why Russia talks constructively."

In terms of the statements made at the summit by Central Asia’s leaders, there was nothing eyecatching or remarkable. Each president simply trotted out the usual standard reaffirmations as to how their close links with Russia remain valuable to them.   

Moscow’s efforts to preserve its standing with the Central Asian countries has been complicated by the growing emergence of the “C5+1” format, in which the five states of the region meet at the table with one power. China, the EU, the US and Korea have all made use of the format.

The Times of Central Asia reported that as Putin opened the summit in Dushanbe he took a veiled swipe at “C5+1”, saying: “I am in constant contact with each of the Central Asian presidents. But I am sure that this multilateral format of communication is also very useful and has its obvious ‘added value’, so to speak.”