Opinion
BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: In Zurich, Turkey’s opposition chief was almost falling over himself to declare that power is nearly upon the CHP
It’s an interesting thought that sounds a bit too good to be true.
COMMENT: Czechia economy powering ahead, Hungary’s economy stalls
Early third-quarter GDP figures from Central Europe point to a growing divergence between the region’s two largest economies outside Poland, with Czechia accelerating its recovery while Hungary continues to struggle.
COMMENT: EU's LNG import ban won’t break Russia, but it will render the sector’s further growth fiendishly hard
The European Union’s nineteenth sanctions package against Russia marks a pivotal escalation in the bloc’s energy strategy, which will impose a comprehensive ban on Russian LNG imports beginning January 1, 2027.
Western Balkan countries become emerging players in Europe’s defence efforts
The Western Balkans could play an increasingly important role in strengthening Europe’s security architecture, says a new report from the Carnegie Europe think-tank.
COMMENT: Sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are symbolic and won’t stop its oil exports
The Trump administration’s sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, announced on October 22, may appear decisive at first glance, but they are not going to make a material difference to Russia’s export of oil, says Sergey Vakulenko.
Armenia’s painful reorientation toward the West
Yerevan’s drive to break free from its dependency on Moscow is generating profound internal political turbulence and exposing it to new external risks, says a report by the Central Asia‑Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program.
COMMENT: Europe’s “fake it till you make it” war approach cannot hold off Russia’s trillion dollar war machine
In their speeches on the war in Ukraine, European leaders appear like a video clip looped on repeat. Standing before the cameras they declare new packages of support for Kyiv and threaten new measures to pressure Russia as if it was still 2022.
A year after the Novi Sad disaster, Belgrade faces one crisis after another
Serbia’s government is grappling with a convergence of crises which threaten to erode President Aleksandar Vucic’s once-dominant position.
Don’t be fooled, Northern Cyprus’ new president is no opponent of Erdogan, says academic
Turkey’s powers-that-be said to have anticipated that Tufan Erhurman will pose no major threat.
COMMENT: Hungary’s investment slump shows signs of bottoming, but EU tensions still cast a long shadow
Hungary’s economy has fallen behind its Central European peers in recent years, and the root of this underperformance lies in a sharp and protracted collapse in investment. But a possible change of government next year could change things.
IMF: Global economic outlook shows modest change amid policy shifts and complex forces
Dialing down uncertainty, reducing vulnerabilities, and investing in innovation can help deliver durable economic gains.
COMMENT: China’s new export controls are narrower than first appears
A closer inspection suggests that the scope of China’s new controls on rare earths is narrower than many had initially feared. But they still give officials plenty of leverage over global supply chains, according to Capital Economics.
BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: Consumed by the Donald Trump Gaza Show? You’d do well to remember the Erdogan Episode
Nature of Turkey-US relations has become transparent under an American president who doesn’t deign to care what people think.
COMMENT: ANO’s election win to see looser Czech fiscal policy, firmer monetary stance
The victory of the populist, eurosceptic ANO party in Czechia’s parliamentary election on October 6 will likely usher in a looser fiscal stance that supports growth and reinforces the Czech National Bank’s recent hawkish shift.
COMMENT: Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have probably reduced throughput by 30.4%, less than headline figures suggest
Ukraine has been hitting Russian refineries and caused a fuel crisis that has spead across multiple regions. The headline figure is that oil refining has been reduced by 38% since August, but digging into it and the reduction is likely less.
MACRO ADVISORY: The unintended consequences of Western sanctions
Since 2014, Western nations have hit Russia with a total of 26,655 sanctions (to mid-September 2025), with 23,960 coming after February 2022. The largest target group, with 13,611 sanctions, is state officials, business owners, and oligarchs.
PANNIER: Few will mourn passing of Turkmen Iron Lady Atajanova and Uzbek Grey Cardinal Jurabekov
Their deaths seem to have been conveniently overlooked for the most part by the authorities of today.
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COMMENT: How Kyrgyzstan is becoming a Chinese province
Central Asia lies at the crossroads of major geopolitical and regional interests. Until recently, the countries of the region managed to balance between Russia, China, Turkey, and the collective West. Now China plays an increasingly impoortant role.
COMMENT: Russia’s demographic fall enters a more dangerous phase
When Vladimir Putin first came to power, Russia was grappling with a demographic crisis. A quarter of a century later, the country faces another one—this time more severe, more complex, and more resistant to the tools previously used to contain it.
BERTRAND: The return of geopolitical gravity
Four extraordinary events happened last week within the span of just 72 hours; a week which may well be remembered as one of the most consequential in the transition from Pax Americana to the multipolar world.