“Rare earths”. As Donald Trump on November 6 hosts Central Asia’s five presidents in Washington, DC, observers can forgive themselves if they quickly lose count of the number of times these buzzwords are uttered.

Access to rare earth and critical mineral deposits is vital to US national and economic security and, with geopolitical rival China causing no end of difficulties that potentially block much of that access, Trump will not lose sight of any counter-balancing resource deals that might be available from doing business with Central Asia, despite having lately struck rare-earth deals with Australia, Malaysia, Thailand and Japan.

Nearly 170 rare-earth occurrences, ranging from 28 deposits to prospects based on early-stage exploration, are found across the region, according to the US Geological Survey. Developing, refining and shipping much of the still largely untapped deposits would amount to an exacting, time-consuming and costly challenge, but the US, with some urgency, knows it must step up the search for possible alternatives to China's near monopoly on the rare-earth supply chain.

In relations with the major powers, big “Stans” Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and little “Stans” Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan can play hard to get, typically adopting “multi-vector” foreign policy founded on the principle of not falling out with anyone. But in business, decisions must be made, and if Trump pushes hard for rich resource delivery in transactional relationships, Central Asia’s leaders will have to decide how far they are prepared to go in agreements that could potentially rile Russia and China.

What – in rare earths, critical minerals and other business of interest to the Trump administration – is potentially on offer at the “C5+1” summit in the US?

There’s no doubt that Central Asia qualifies as resource-rich. As noted by academics who recently wrote an assessment for The Hill, the region boasts 39% of global manganese as well as “30% of chromium, 20% of lead, 13% of zinc, and 9% of titanium. Kazakhstan alone produces 43% of the world’s uranium”.  

Titanium and beryllium, a chemical element also abundant in Kazakhstan, are crucial to jet engines, air‑frames (including those of F‑16s and other fighter jets), and space or missile systems.

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The Central Asia Five: from left, Presidents Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan, Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan, Sadyr Japarov of Kyrgyzstan, Serdar Berdimuhamedov of Turkmenistan and Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan (Credit: Kyrgyz presidency).

For a few business menu snapshots, let’s take a look on a country-on-country basis.

KAZAKHSTAN
As Central Asia’s largest economy, oil and gas rich Kazakhstan believes it has largely untapped major reserves of rare earths and critical minerals to flaunt.

Its president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has referred to such resources as the “new oil”. Experts generally refer to 17 rare earth elements (REEs), vital to the production of energy, defence and tech “transition” products including wind turbines, electric vehicles and other modern cars, military hardware such as fighter jet engines and smartphones.

In April, Kazakhstan claimed the discovery of huge deposits of more than 20mn tonnes of rare earths. Dependable verification of that claim is still being sought. However, if it turns out to be correct, Kazakhstan would be recognised as having the world's third-largest reserves of rare earth metals, behind only China and Brazil.

Will Trump be in the mood for hiring or firing? (Credit: Public domain, screenshot).

The US, meanwhile, is already in talks with Kazakhstan over access to one of the world's largest untapped deposits of tungsten, used in the production of ammunition, missiles and other arms. Kazakhstan has two massive deposits of tungsten (global provision of which is presently 90%-commanded by China) and US company Cove Kaz Capital Group LLC and Kazakhstan's sovereign wealth fund are in talks over the possible development of these resources.

Apart from minerals, Kazakhstan, also Central Asia’s most substantial player in copper, has been, since the outbreak of the full-scale Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022, the main focus of efforts to develop the rail, road and Caspian Sea Middle Corridor, a set of multi-modal trade transit routes stretching over around 6,500 kilometres (4,039 miles) from Europe/Turkey to China via the South Caucasus and Central Asia (largely Kazakhstan, but also quite often Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan), avoiding Russia in the process. The Middle Corridor could become important in exporting Central Asian mineral wealth.

In terms of the expectations of Kazakhstan should there be a new trade and investment “bargain” with the US, Astana will press hard for the repeal of Cold War-era Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions that erect trade barriers to countries deemed to have nonmarket economies that restrict emigration.

Access to US knowhow and, vitally, finance that would make possible rare earth refining plants – China has near total dominance in this sphere – are other goals.

Whatever is agreed, for a reminder of the geopolitical tug-of-war that is in play over Central Asia, it is interesting to note that Tokayev has an appointment with Vladimir Putin in Moscow on November 12.

UZBEKISTAN
Ahead of the summit, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev provided a sweetener as he announced that 30-day, visa-free travel is to be made available to all US citizens (not just to citizens over 55 years-old as the rules currently stipulate).

A lack of verified data also means Uzbekistan’s rare earth resources remain indeterminate, but the indications are they are significant and the country – Central Asia’s second largest economy and home to its biggest population, with around 38mn people – is already a serious player in gold, copper and uranium.

Traxys, a US-based commodities firm, recently signed a $1bn agreement with Uzbekistan to explore and develop its critical minerals sector.

In terms of rare earths important to the production of modern military systems, the Caspian Policy Center, a think tank in Washington, recently put out a report report saying gallium and germanium — critical to precision‑guided munitions and advanced semiconductors — are mined in sizeable volumes in Uzbekistan.

Uzbekistan is also known as a champion of clean energy development and Tashkent is supporting a major green-energy initiative involving a US company, Eurasianet has reported.

New York state hydrogen power producer Plug Power in recent days unveiled a deal to deliver electrolysers, equipment used to separate hydrogen particles from water, to a new facility in Uzbekistan. The units will be used by Australian firm Allied Biofuels to create sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in a $5.5bn project.

The sun is yet to properly rise on Central Asia's rare earth mining and refining industries (Credit: Tmy350, cc-by-sa 4.0).

TAJIKISTAN

Tajikistan is known for its substantial deposits of highly-sought-after antimony, a silver-grey rare metal used in lead-acid batteries, solar panels and reinforcing the armour of military vehicles.

Giant neighbour China, however, is already busy exploiting the antimony found in Tajikistan, Central Asia’s poorest country. Tajik-Chinese JV Talco Gold has 1,500 employees devoted to scouring 50 kilometres (30 miles) of underground galleries at a Soviet-era site.

China accounts for almost half of the world's antimony production, with Tajikistan in second place at around a quarter of output – approximately 21,000 tonnes in 2023 – according to the US Geological Survey.

The price of antimony hit an all-time high last year when China brought in export restrictions.

The US currently produces none of its own antimony, but earlier this year it awarded a final federal permit for the reopening of the Stibnite antimony mine in Idaho, as bne IntelliNews reported in June.

Tajikistan has plans for the construction of an antimony purification plant. That would help it increase control over its antimony production chain.

Antimony is known for its flame-retardant properties. It is also used in the production of bullets, nuclear weapons, infrared missile technology and night-vision technology.

KYRGYZSTAN

A significant producer of gold, Kyrgyzstan is thought to boast multiple rare earth and critical mineral deposits of interest, but reliable verified data on them is scarce.

In September 2024, the country talked of the potential to earn as much as $88bn from the development of a giant deposit of titanomagnetite, a mineral containing oxides of titanium and iron. Plans to move into the production of titanium sponge and export the valuable commodity to China have been discussed by officials.

In trade transit, Kyrgyzstan, another neighbour of China, is attempting to tap into the growth of the Middle Corridor. It has pushed hard for the realisation of the long-dreamt-of China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway. Though work got under way this year, the challenge is mighty – scores of tunnels and bridges must be built through mountainous territory.

US railway investors are already engaged in the country. In February this year, a railway development deal with All American Rail Group (AARG) that will involve an investment of around $3bn was announced.

The project for the development of the “Trans-Eurasian Route” in Kyrgyzstan represents Bishkek’s first public-private partnership (PPP) agreement in the railway sector. A railway is to be constructed across central Kyrgyzstan, traversing mountainous landscapes from east to west, connecting Karakol in the northeastern Issyk-Kul region with Makmal in the southwestern Jalal-Abad region.

At Makmal, the railway is to link to the CKU.

TURKMENISTAN

Gas-rich Turkmenistan also wants a big piece of the expanding Middle Corridor business, but perhaps its biggest worry is that Russia could limit its potential to expand piped gas provision to China by selling Beijing alternative supplies.

For decades, Turkmenistan has attempted to diversify gas sales via the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project, but the pipeline so far only extends a few miles into Afghanistan and security concerns, plus the Afghan Taliban and India’s unstable relationships with Pakistan, could mean it never gets much further. It has become known as the “great mirage”.

There is speculation that the Turkmens could ask Trump to arrange a “grand bargain” deal with the Taliban that could transform the TAPI prospects, but with the project still going nowhere fast, Turkmenistan has started to look again at building a pipeline across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, from where delivered gas could be exported to Turkey/Europe. US investors have long been interested in realising such a megaproject and it might just feature on the agenda at the C5+1 summit.

WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE SAYING

• Asked by Azattyk about the purpose of the upcoming summit, Shaiyrbek Joroev, director of the Crossroads Central Asia Research Institute, said: “The short answer is, they [the US] cannot be competitors [to China or Russia in Central Asia]. If we compare the US and China, the geographical situation for Central Asia is completely different. China is our neighbour, while the US is far away.

“In order for the US to become a real competitor to China or Russia, in addition to high-level political rhetoric, it must also strengthen its ties in the areas of private property, investment, trade and business.

“So far, the relationship between the United States and Central Asia has been largely a high-level political one. In such conditions, it is difficult to have real competition. Of course, Central Asia is just one of many regions in the world for large powers.”

• “The summit may yield big headlines and ambitious promises. But without hard investments in logistics, energy and refining — and clear-eyed acknowledgment of political realities — talk of transforming Central Asia into a major alternative supply hub [for rare earths and critical minerals] will remain aspirational. Real progress will require patience, pragmatism and persistence,” Edward Lemon, a research assistant professor at the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University and president of the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs and Bradley Jardine, managing director of the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, wrote in The Hill. 

They added: “Resource-rich, strategically located, and increasingly interested in diversifying economic partners, the region represents a rare ‘win-win’ opportunity. [Joe] Biden’s 2023 launch of a critical minerals dialogue laid the foundation, and deals are already underway.”

• "The Central Asians look well-positioned with their large [rare earth and critical mineral] deposits and growing investment in the Middle Corridor," Joseph Epstein, director of the Washington-based Yorktown Institute's Turan Research Center, told RFE/RL.

He added: "Both Beijing and Washington are set to use the pause [in their trade conflict] to create an advantage from their side to have more leverage in the next round of trade tensions. That makes the United States even more of a counterweight as the Central Asians look to preserve their multi-vector foreign policies."

• "This [summit] has the potential to be a new way for Central Asian leaders to improve their domestic economic outlooks and get a rapid influx of foreign direct investment," Eldaniz Gusseinov, head of research at Nightingale Intelligence, a political foresight firm, told RFE/RL.

• "It's China's monopoly of the processing [of rare earths] that is more important than the supply," William Courtney, a former US ambassador to Kazakhstan and adjunct senior fellow at the Rand Corporation, told RFE/RL. "So, if you're the United States and you want to compete, you need to find other countries without strict environmental regulations that are willing to host."

• "Under Biden, one of the main goals was to maintain Central Asian unity—Washington sought to ensure that the region's countries acted in a coordinated manner and could withstand pressure from Russia and China. The US emphasized regional cohesion, strengthening economic and political ties, and regular dialogue between leaders. Now, under Trump, the format will likely be different—more pragmatic and focused on material gains," Erica Marat, a Central Asia expert and professor at the US-based National Defense University, was quoted as saying by Azattyq.

"The US, as in its relations with other countries, will seek opportunities that primarily benefit the United States itself," she added.

• “Successive administrations have stated that the United States cannot allow its clean energy transition, advanced manufacturing, or defense industries to hinge on an insecure foreign supply,” Zhannat Balgabaevna Dubirova, Vice Minister of Industry and Construction of Kazakhstan, wrote in a commentary for The National Interest.

She added: “Domestic mining and recycling are part of the solution, but geography and geology mean that the United States cannot insulate itself entirely. Diversification is the only viable path. This means building supply chains that are broader, deeper, and more resilient —involving fewer chokepoints, fewer single-source dependencies, and more trusted partners.”

• "The Central Asia-US summit should ensure human rights is a key part of the agenda, especially as repression increases across Central Asia," Hugh Williamson, Europe and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement. "Participating countries should recognize that they risk recent social and economic progress if international partners seek stable environments elsewhere for engagement and investment."