Top European Commission officials said on October 4 that admitting new member states to the European Union by 2030 is now a “realistic goal”, as Brussels presented its annual enlargement report and urged aspiring countries to seize the momentum for joining the bloc.

“The window for enlargement is wide open and we have to seize the opportunity now,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. “New countries joining the EU by 2030 is a realistic goal.”

The 2025 Enlargement Package, adopted by the European Commission, details progress made by candidate and potential candidate countries over the past year. It signals a growing political will within the EU to accelerate integration of key partners in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe, while maintaining the bloc’s long-standing insistence on a merit-based process.

Enlargement back on the agenda

The enlargement process has been revitalised since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with countries such as Ukraine and Moldova gaining candidate status, and renewed momentum for the accession process in the Western Balkans. 

“The momentum for enlargement stands high on the EU’s priority agenda,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. “A larger Union means a stronger and more influential Europe on the global stage. But enlargement is a merit-based process. Our partners must continue with reforms in democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights.”

Von der Leyen said the Commission’s new assessments provide detailed recommendations and roadmaps for each country. The process, she added, was designed to ensure both the readiness of future member states and the EU’s own institutional preparedness for another wave of expansion.

Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said 2025 had been “a year of significant progress,” highlighting Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova as the countries advancing most rapidly toward accession.

“At the current pace and quality of reforms, we may be able to conclude accession negotiations in the coming years,” Kos said.

Reform efforts praised 

The Commission’s report praised Montenegro and Albania for sustained reform efforts. Montenegro has closed four negotiation chapters this year and aims to wrap up talks by the end of 2026 if reform momentum continues. Albania has opened four clusters and plans to conclude negotiations by 2027, supported by continued progress in justice reform and the fight against corruption.

Despite the ongoing war with Russia, Ukraine has pushed ahead with its EU integration drive. The Commission said Kyiv had met conditions to open several negotiating clusters and could be ready to open all by the end of the year. However, it warned that an “acceleration of reforms” — especially on rule of law — would be needed to meet Ukraine’s ambitious target of closing negotiations by 2028.

Moldova, facing similar security pressures and hybrid threats, has also completed the screening process and opened key clusters. The Commission said Chisinau’s goal of concluding negotiations by early 2028 was “ambitious but achievable,” provided the government sustains reform momentum following recent elections.

By contrast, enlargement progress in the Western Balkans remains uneven. Serbia’s accession process has slowed amid deepening political polarisation, protests and concerns about media freedom. North Macedonia, meanwhile, must adopt long-delayed constitutional changes to advance negotiations, while Bosnia & Herzegovina continues to struggle with political deadlock and slow reform delivery.

Kosovo, still awaiting full recognition from some EU states, has maintained its commitment to integration but saw delays in reform implementation due to domestic political disruptions. The Commission said it was ready to prepare an opinion on Kosovo’s membership application if requested by EU governments.

Turkey and Georgia face setbacks

Turkey remains a formal candidate country and a strategic partner, but accession talks have been frozen since 2018. The Commission said that while cooperation continues on key regional and migration issues, Ankara has shown no progress on democratic standards or judicial independence.

Georgia, once seen as a frontrunner among Eastern Partnership states, has seen its EU prospects collapse amid what the Commission described as “serious democratic backsliding”. Brussels said the government’s restrictive laws on civil society and media, and the erosion of judicial independence, have effectively halted its accession process. 

“Georgia is a candidate country in name only,” the report stated bluntly.

The Commission said it would soon present a new communication on in-depth policy reviews and EU reforms to prepare both current and future members for enlargement. It also proposed stronger safeguards in future Accession Treaties to prevent backsliding on rule-of-law commitments after joining the bloc — a lesson drawn from recent challenges within the EU itself.

Brussels emphasised that enlargement is not just a political ambition but a process of gradual integration. Countries such as Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans are already benefiting from new EU initiatives — including the €6bn Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, the €1.9bn Moldova Growth Plan and the €50bn Ukraine Facility — that bring them closer to the single market.

“Each enlargement has made our Union stronger,” the Commission said, citing economic data showing that the 2004 enlargement doubled living standards in new member states and expanded the EU economy by more than a quarter.