Poland’s population is projected to fall to 28.4mn by 2060 if the current record-low fertility rate of 1.10 persists, according to an experimental population simulation published by Poland’s statistical office GUS on November 6. 

The estimate is 2.5mn below the official projection released in 2023, which forecast the country’s population at 30.9mn by mid-century. Poland’s population is around 37.5mn today.

GUS’s findings indicate that Poland’s population structure will become significantly older and more imbalanced by 2060. In every scenario, the number of people in working and pre-working age will fall sharply, while the post-working-age population will expand. 

Under the low-fertility assumptions, the share of those under working age will decline to about 12% of the total, and the working-age population will drop to around 14mn, down by nearly 8mn from 2024. At the same time, people of retirement age could make up more than 40% of the population, compared with roughly one-fifth today.

The shift will be most visible among the oldest groups: the number of people aged 90 and over is expected to nearly triple, while every younger cohort will shrink, particularly those aged 40–49. 

The report notes that this prolonged period of very low fertility, combined with longer life expectancy, will leave Poland with a shrinking workforce and a rapidly ageing society.

The experimental analysis modelled three scenarios, accounting for a sharper decline in births and longer life expectancy. The first scenario assumes the total fertility rate remains at 1.1 through 2060, the second envisages longer life expectancy based on the high-variant scenario of the 2023 forecast, and the third combines both low fertility and extended lifespan.

All three variants foresee a steady fall in population, with the steepest decline under the low-fertility scenario, representing a 24.3% decrease compared with 2024 levels. In contrast, the simulation assuming higher life expectancy predicts the smallest drop, to 32.3mn in 2060, a 13.9% fall from 2024.

In every scenario, the number of working-age and pre-working-age people is set to shrink, while the population over retirement age will rise. By 2060, the share of those below working age will fall to about 12% under the low-fertility assumptions and slightly under 16% in scenarios with higher life expectancy. 

None of the variants foresee the working-age population exceeding 50% of the total by 2060, meaning non-working individuals will outnumber those in employment.