OPEC+ agreed on August 2 to raise output by around 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) from September, completing the unwinding of voluntary cuts first agreed in 2023.

The decision, taken at a virtual meeting of the seven core producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman – closes the phased return of 1.65mn bpd of barrels that had been withheld from the market, OPEC said in a statement on its website.

The bloc first announced the voluntary layer in April 2023, when the group still counted the United Arab Emirates among its members. The UAE left OPEC in May.

Successive monthly increases through 2026 have largely failed to translate into additional barrels on the water, with export disruptions from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan – the fallout of the Iran and Ukraine wars – keeping the paper hikes largely notional, according to Reuters.

The statement made no mention of policy for the fourth quarter, despite OPEC+ sources telling Reuters ahead of the meeting that a pause in further increases was the likely outcome. A separate layer of roughly 2mn bpd of cuts, dating from 2022 and covering most of the wider group, remains in place until the end of the year.

“OPEC+ has finished unwinding its voluntary cuts. The next challenge is managing the surplus that could emerge as export flows normalise,” Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, told Reuters. “Having completed the restoration campaign, OPEC+ has little incentive to rush into further supply changes. Our base case is a fourth-quarter pause while the group prepares for the 2027 quota negotiations.”

The seven countries said the September adjustment would give participating members an opportunity to accelerate compensation for past overproduction, reiterating their commitment to full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation and to compensating any overproduced volumes since January 2024. Monitoring will remain with the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).

The JMMC also met on August 2 and, according to OPEC, voiced concern over attacks on energy infrastructure during the US-Israeli war on Iran, noting that repairs were costly and slow and therefore weighed on supply.

Attention now turns to the 2027 baselines, with OPEC+ conducting a review of members' production capacity that will underpin next year's quota talks. Iraq and others with expanded capacity are pressing for higher individual allocations. The seven core producers next meet on September 6.