Moldova's industrial facilities had to reduce operations dramatically in the winter of 2022-23, as natural gas resources were limited and costly.
Moldova and Montenegro already targets of Russian destabilisation efforts, says RUSI report.
Both imports and exports contracted in 2023.
President Maia Sandu says step is crucial for the country's European path, as it sets the stage for accession negotiations.
Inflation has fallen dramatically since 2022 and remained within the target band for the third consecutive month in December.
Vienna-based think-tank expects growth to get back on track this year, but warns of risks from a Trump victory in the US and escalation of fighting in Ukraine or Gaza.
Eurosceptics' ability to exploit protests will test the EU's potential to influence its Eastern Neighbourhood. At the same time, electoral cycles in Eastern Europe favour the consolidation and perpetuation of autocracies.
Moldova has shifted from exporting sunflower seeds to processed products, with oil and groats exports up sharply.