IMF improves Russia's 2023 GDP forecast from 0.3% to 0.7%
Russia's economy is expected to grow more quickly this year by 0.7% according to the IMF, but slow more than expected next year, growing by 1.3%. / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews
April 12, 2023
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its estimate of Russian economic growth in 2023, the Fund said in its report on global economic development prospects released on April 12.
The IMF expects the Russian national GDP to grow by 0.7% in 2023, up from the previous forecast of 0.3% growth for this year. It also expects growth next year to be 1.3%, less than the previous forecast of 2.1% as sanctions continue to bite.
Inflation in Russia was 13.8% on average last year, the IMF said. Inflation is anticipated to fall to below the CBR’s target rate of 4% in the coming months, on low base effects, but will rise again in the second half of this year towards around 8%, the CBR believes.
The Fund predicts inflation will drop to 7% in 2023 and to 4.6% in 2024.
Data
Russia’s strong growth, driven by heavy military spending, has created growing inflationary pressure as the economy starts to overheat, the Bank of Finland institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) says in its weekly update.
In the most recent poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), President Vladimir Putin's trust rating remained steady at 78.5%.
Ukraine’s leading investment bank Dragon Capital has cut its GDP forecast for Ukraine in 2024 in half to 4% y/y in anticipation of another year of war, The New Voice of Ukraine reported on December 7.
Czech industrial production increased by 1.9% year on year and by 2.8% month on month in October. The October increase follows a 5% slump registered in September, which alarmed local analysts.
Since 2018, economy has carried risk of severe balance of payments crisis. For the removal of that risk, the central bank’s net in and off-balance sheet FX position should at least turn positive.
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