The raid on two Ukrainian armoured cash transport vehicles earlier this month by Hungarian authorities was an orchestrated intelligence operation to provoke Kyiv and escalate the conflict to help Fidesz in the election campaign, Szabolcs Panyi of investigative news site Vsquare writes, citing four people familiar with the situation.

On March 5 on a motorway near Budapest, Hungary’s anti-terrorist TEK group raided the convoy, which was carrying $40mn, €35mn and nine kilograms of gold from Austria to Ukraine, between Raiffeisen Bank and Ukrainian state-owned Oschadbank.

Seven employees of the bank were detained and expelled from the country a day later.

The two banks said the transfer was cleared by the Hungarian authorities and in line with existing regulations. Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha accused Budapest of state terrorism and racketeering in the wake of the incident.

According to the report, the operation was directed by Ors Farkas, a senior figure responsible for civilian intelligence services under cabinet minister Antal Rogan, one of the government’s most influential members, who oversees Hungary’s intelligence agencies and government communications.

Hungarian intelligence began tracking the bank’s regular cash shipments between Vienna and Ukraine as early as January. Some of this surveillance took place abroad, including identifying the hotel used by the Ukrainian couriers and mapping their routes across Austria.

The SBU officer heading Oschadbank’s cash transport unit came onto the radar of intelligence services, and his presence provided the legal ground, or rather the pretext, for the operation, Szabolcs Panyi adds.

The initial plan reportedly aimed to stop the convoy in a way that could justify suspicions of arms trafficking or links to terrorism, but this version fell apart after it became clear that all paperwork and activities were lawful and no weapons were discovered.

After the raid, sources cited by Vsquare said authorities attempted to retroactively justify the action by accusing the Ukrainian side of money laundering, and an investigation was launched. However, this reportedly caused internal tensions, as the tax authority (NAV) learned of the scenario only afterwards.

Parliament gave the legal basis for holding back gold and cash by passing a decree which gave NAV 60 days to determine the origin, destination, use, and purpose of the money. Hungary returned the two vehicles seized but the money and the gold will unlikely be returned to Ukraine before the election.

Janos Lazar, Minister for Transport and Construction suggested that the seizure of the funds was a politically motivated response to Kyiv’s refusal to repair a pipeline carrying Russian gas through Ukraine to Hungary. "If they are blackmailing us, we will not return the money. For now, it stays here," Lazar said at a campaign event.

The Vsquare report also claims that military intelligence services were not informed in advance and that the Defence Ministry was contacted only during the operation, when TEK required logistical support to transport the seized assets from the spot.

According to people cited by Panyi, those behind the operation have privately claimed that their primary objective was achieved, as the raid triggered remarks by the Ukrainian president that could be politically advantageous for Fidesz.

At a press conference later in the day, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he "would provide his soldiers with the contact details" of the person blocking the €90bn EU aid for Ukraine, which was widely interpreted as a personal threat against the Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who could now portray himself as the victim of aggression by Ukraine.

Pro-government media also amplified this message, and opposition leader Peter Magyar, labelled by Fidesz as a puppet of Brussels and Kyiv, had to respond under pressure, strongly denouncing the remarks as unacceptable.

A few days later, another video emerged, in which a former SBU officer is seen warning Orban and his family of consequences for siding with Putin. However, as experts pointed out, the video was AI-generated, and Russia was suspected of being behind the plot.

Analysts said Zelenskiy’s comments came as a gift from the sky for the Orban campaign team. The latest data shows Fidesz managed to slightly close the gap with Tisza, which is still 7-8 points ahead.

The PM's Cabinet Office, which oversees civilian intelligence services, and the tax authority did not respond to requests for comment on the possible involvement of intelligence agencies in the March 5 raid. 

Oschadbank’s legal representative has filed a complaint with Hungarian prosecutors, alleging abuse of office and suspicion of a terrorist act.

A week after the raid, Panyi published a post reporting the death of a senior NAV official under strange circumstances. According to the report, a senior tax authority official held a large private event at a country resort near Lake Balaton on March 5 to celebrate his promotion. The party was attended by more than 100 invitees, including many high-ranking Fidesz politicians, deputy ministers and Ors Farkas himself.

One guest, a prominent tax officer, was found dead the next day in a shallow lake with head injuries. Authorities only confirmed the news after Panyi reported the story and treated the case as an accident, but provided no further details.

Panyi said in his first post that his sources also claimed it was a tragic accident following a night of heavy drinking, and there is no alternative explanation for the death of Brigadier Csaba Torda. 

He suspects that authorities withheld the news for days, as it would have complicated the government's narrative of the Ukrainian "gold convoy," as pro-Orbán media labelled the high-profile operation, which has further escalated tensions between the two countries.

On March 21, the Guardian reported that one of the Ukrainians detained in the raid was forceably given a truth serum and traces of the drug were discovered during blood tests in Ukraine. The drug reportedly led the man, who is diabetic, to have a hypertensive crisis and lose consciousness, after which he was taken to hospital.  Lorant Horvath, the Hungarian lawyer of the Ukrainian men confirmed that "one individual received an injection of unknown contents despite his objections", the Guardian writes.