Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema has won a second five-year term with 61.4% of the vote, giving him a renewed mandate to pursue an investment-led economic programme centred on sharply expanding copper production after restructuring the country's debt.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia declared the 64-year-old incumbent the winner early on August 18 after he secured 2.97mn votes. His main opposition challenger, Brian Mundubile, received about 38%, or 1.86mn votes.

Hichilema campaigned on the economic stabilisation achieved since he took office in 2021, when Zambia was struggling with the aftermath of its 2020 sovereign default. His government restored relations with international lenders, completed a $1.7bn IMF programme and largely restructured about $13bn of external debt.

The president's second term is expected to place particular emphasis on mining. Zambia, Africa's second-largest copper producer after the Democratic Republic of Congo, produced 890,346 tonnes of copper in 2025 and is seeking to more than triple annual output to 3mn tonnes by 2031.

“Hichilema can point to a strong economic record. GDP has expanded by a solid ~5% p.a. during his term, while inflation has fallen from a peak of 24.6% y/y in 2021 to 6.5% y/y in July. This was helped by the surge in copper prices during his time in office. But the president can take some credit for the recovery in copper production, which rose to 0.89mn tonnes in 2025, the highest since Zambia’s independence in 1964,” wrote David Omojomolo, Africa Economist at Capital Economics, ahead of the vote.

“The improvement in macro stability creates good foundations for sustained growth, but what remains to be seen is whether Hichilema can move from crisis management to structural reforms. Ambitious plans to increase copper production to 3mn tonnes a year by 2031 are welcome, but we think as much emphasis needs to be placed on processing and adding value along Zambia’s mining supply chain […]. And while Zambia’s investment attractiveness is amongst the highest in the region, there is still much scope to improve the operating environment, from addressing electricity constraints to improving logistics.”

The copper mining expansion drive under Hichilema has drawn investment from companies including First Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM), Barrick Mining (NYSE: B; TSX: ABX), China's JCHX Mining Management (SSE: 603979), privately held International Resources Holding and US-backed KoBold Metals.

Achieving the 3mn-tonne target will require substantial investment beyond the mines themselves. Industry executives estimate Zambia needs at least 2,000 MW of additional power capacity to support the planned expansion, while miners have also called for improvements in exploration incentives, processing capacity and transport infrastructure. Mining accounts for around 70% of Zambia’s export earnings and more than 10% of GDP, making the sector’s expansion central to Hichilema’s broader growth strategy.

Hichilema's government has sought to revive projects, provide greater regulatory certainty and attract billions of dollars of mining investment as global demand for copper and other critical minerals rises. The sector is central to efforts to create jobs, increase export revenues and broaden an economic recovery that has yet to translate into improved living standards for many Zambians.

“By our estimates, copper export revenues are likely to be about 8% of GDP higher this year than last, more than offsetting the weaker terms of trade pressures from the energy shock. This should also keep the external position on better footing, with the current account deficit moving into surplus by 2028, meaning the kwacha does not lose too much of its 18% year-to-date gains against the dollar,” Omojomolo wrote.

“The public finances have also been repaired under Hichilema’s watch. While a long and tortuous process, Zambia has now made substantial progress restructuring external debt, including agreements with China and official creditors, alongside navigating tricky commercial creditor talks in parallel.”

The country's mineral wealth has also placed Lusaka at the centre of growing competition between the United States and China. Chinese companies have established a major position in Zambia's mining industry, while Washington has sought greater US participation in African critical-minerals supply chains.

Relations with the United States became strained earlier this year after Zambia said Washington was attempting to link a proposed health assistance agreement worth up to $2bn over five years with a separate critical-minerals agreement. Foreign Minister Mulambo Haimbe said Zambia objected to preferential treatment for US companies and insisted the health and minerals negotiations should be considered separately.

The vote nevertheless exposed political tensions that will follow Hichilema into his second term. Opposition parties and civil society organisations accused his government of restricting political activity and using state institutions to its advantage, allegations the administration has rejected.

The European Union's election observation mission said voting on August 13 was generally calm and offered voters a competitive choice but concluded that restrictions on fundamental freedoms and unequal campaign conditions had produced an uneven playing field.

“Key incumbency advantages blurred the line between state and political campaigning, creating an uneven playing field,” the mission said.

Vote counting was temporarily suspended after attacks on election workers and the theft of ballot papers. Authorities also arrested several prominent opposition figures following a nighttime raid in which gunfire was exchanged, accusing them of involvement in a planned insurrection. Opposition leaders rejected the allegations and accused the government of intimidation.

Mundubile questioned the credibility of the results and had claimed victory before the final count without providing evidence. Hichilema and his supporters rejected allegations that the election had been manipulated.

Greg Musiker, Zambia analyst at advisory firm Signal Risk, said a legal challenge by the opposition was possible but widespread instability was unlikely, Reuters reported. “While localised political violence is possible in the coming days, widespread unrest is not expected,” he said.

Hichilema now faces the challenge of converting stronger macroeconomic conditions and renewed investor confidence into broader gains for households. Despite falling inflation and progress on debt restructuring, poverty and living costs remain major concerns.

His government is also seeking to agree a new IMF programme before the end of 2026 as it tries to channel further investment into mining, energy and agriculture. The success of that strategy — and of the plan to lift copper output to 3mn tonnes — is likely to define the economic record of Hichilema's second term.