Eastern Europe / Opinion
MOSCOW BLOG: Are we drifting into a nuclear war with Russia?
US President Donald Trump moved two nuclear submarines to an “appropriate place” as part of his tough man showdown with Russian President Vladimir Putin that comes to a head this week when the 10-day deadline expires.
COMMENT: Russian sanctions have failed, but its buffers are eroding
Russia’s ability to withstand Western sanctions is showing signs of strain as fiscal and external buffers erode, according to senior economists at the Institute of International Finance.
COMMENT: Chinese trade is an economic lifeline for Russia despite falling volumes
Bilateral trade between China and Russia declined in the first half of 2025, but the downturn masks a deeper entrenchment of economic ties that continue to sustain Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.
MACRO ADVISORY: Russia’s August Angst
There are some annual rituals in Russia about which people have a very strong conviction. One of these is to prepare for something of significance, almost always bad, to occur in the month of August.
RIDDLE: Why Russia’s housing market defied the mortgage subsidy collapse
In early July 2025 a year passed since the end of Russia’s subsidised mortgage programme, which many expected would trigger a massive crisis in the construction industry. This didn't happen and the market continues to grow.
COMMENT: Why Russia's economic model no longer delivers
At this year’s St. Petersburg Economic Forum—a once-prestigious event that has grown increasingly insular—Russian economic officials faced uncomfortable questions about the country’s future.
COMMENT: The war in Ukraine is over and its EU aspirations are dead for now
Ukraine’s war with Russia increasingly looks like it is lost. Ukraine is losing ground in the battle with Russia, albeit slowly. At the same time, Kyiv’s EU accession bid appears to be dead following a new law that guts anti-corruption efforts.
COMMENT: Ukraine faces budget test this year as growth slows
Ukraine’s slow post-war economic recovery and growing fiscal demands have placed new pressure on the government in Kyiv to secure additional international funding, with analysts at ICU warning of a looming $10bn to $15bn shortfall for 2026.
COMMENT: Can BRICS deliver beyond the rhetoric? experts weigh in
BRICS has evolved from an emerging economies club into a coalition Trump sees as threatening enough to warrant tariffs. Experts reveal tensions between China's dominance and multipolar goals, with institutional gaps but growing Global South support.
ASH: Türkiye – geopolitical opportunity knocks
Potential for big wins, but also new headaches for Erdogan.
COMMENT: Zelenskiy losing the trust of his people as he adopts more authoritarian ruling style
Russian disinformation is playing on legitimate fears that the Ukrainian president is concentrating more and more power in his own hands at a time when his popularity is starting to fade.
COMMENT: Zelenskiy’s latest reshuffle reinforces presidential power, not government reform
Ukraine’s new prime minister, Yuliia Svyrydenko, is the first to hold the post in five years – but her appointment is unlikely to signal a major shift in Kyiv’s governance.
COMMENT: Trump’s 100% tariff threat to Russian oil customers unlikely to work
Donald Trump’s threat to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil is probably more symbolic than practical, says a leading oil analyst and senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Sergey Vakulenko.
Armenia walking ‘tightrope’ as it shifts away from Russia, think-tank says
Armenia is stepping up efforts to reduce its reliance on Russia, but is constrained by geography, security threats and deep economic ties to Moscow, according to think-tank Clingendael.
COMMENT: Kremlin goes on the offensive in the south by expanding former prime minister Kiriyenko's foreign policy powers
The Kremlin used to tread softly when exercising its influence in the countries along its southern border, but no more, after the powers of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s chief of staff Kiriyenko were expanded.
COMMENT: What will Trump’s Russian 100% secondary sanctions do to the oil markets?
US President Donald Trump announced on July 14 that the US could impose 100% secondary sanctions on any country that does business with Russia if no ceasefire deal in Ukraine is reached within 50 days.
COMMENT: In recognising Taliban, Moscow had one eye on rise in Afghanistan of terrorist ISIS-K
Concerns that the jihadist group is operating near borders with Central Asia “helped shift Russia’s strategic calculus”.
COMMENT: Trump at his most pro-Ukraine yet, but still no sanctions action
US President Donald Trump made his most pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia comments on his presidency to date this week, but he has yet to impose any new sanctions on Russia whatsoever, or follow through on his promises to restart weapons deliveries to Kyiv.
COMMENT: How close to a crisis is Russia's banking sector?
The Russian banking sector, once buoyed by record profits and wartime stimulus, is now showing growing signs of financial strain, leading some to ask if a crisis is looming?
Belarus bargains for relevance, and Washington plays along
In a surprising turn of diplomacy, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Keith Kellogg, met with Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk on June 21,and 14 political prisoners were subsequently set free from Belarussian prison.