Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban repeated his threat to block the next long-term EU budget and argued for a multi-speed Europe, while criticizing the EU for supporting Ukraine in his annual keynote address at the Baile Tusnad summer university in Romania on July 26.

Political observers were engaged in intense speculation over whether the Hungarian prime minister would make a major announcement in his last address before the April 2026 elections, as he had used the occasion of the political and cultural gathering of Fidesz loyalists and ethnic Hungarians to set the political narrative and lay out his grand geopolitical strategies.

The options included a high-profile meeting with Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin, a cabinet reshuffle, changes to the electoral system, or pairing the 2026 parliamentary election with a national referendum, similar to 2022. Instead, Orban surprised many by forgoing any major announcement, sticking to familiar themes such as the war in Ukraine, tensions between the US and EU, migration, and gender issues.

Orban opened by acknowledging domestic political challenges and the rising threat posed by the opposition Tisza Party, signalling that for the first time in over 15 years he no longer holds an unshakeable dominant position.

He reassured supporters with internal polling suggesting a strong lead in 80 of 106 constituencies, a claim contradicted by most pollsters, but he admitted that Fidesz faces a hostile digital landscape dominated by opponents. To counter this, he announced the launch of new Digital Civic Circles to build a conservative digital presence, saying the online space has been a battleground where right-wing, non-liberal voices face harassment.

The project comes after the launch of the Fighters Club, an online army of Fidesz loyalists, aimed to counterbalance the growing presence of Tisza Island and a reference to the successful civic movement launched after the unexpected 2002 election loss of Fidesz.

In his address, the prime minister said the chance of a third world war was "constantly rising", and Hungary has to stay out of the Ukrainian conflict even if it's under threat to be pushed into the conflict, claims he had made numerous times before the 2024 EP elections, elevating warmongering rhetoric.

He said that whereas Western politics viewed the Russia-Ukraine conflict as one between democracy and authoritarianism, in reality, Ukraine joining the West would mean a breakdown in the balance of power between the West and Russia, he argued.

The West had championed the cause of Ukraine's integration "at the wrong time and in the wrong way, which led to war", he said.

A day before the speech, Orban told state news radio from the picturesque Transylvanian town with sizeable Hungarian minority, that rejecting Ukraine's European Union accession was "in Hungary's fundamental interest" as admitting Ukraine to the EU would also mean "admitting war" and the regions that would be most affected "would be the ones neighbouring that country". Instead of membership, the EU and Ukraine could agree on "orderly, strategic" cooperation that would not create the risk of war.

"Ukraine's destiny today is to be a buffer state next to Russia. And we do not want to accept this destiny, the Hungarians simply escaped it, because we were also a buffer state during the Cold War," the Hungarian prime minister told Kossuth Radio.

Orban also repeated his threat to block the next long-term EU budget unless Brussels releases billions of euros in frozen funds for Hungary, withheld due to corruption and concerns over the rule of law, a remark that received little attention in the domestic media.  

According to the prime minister, the EU's next seven-year budget is a "wartime budget" and a fifth of the funds is earmarked for Ukraine.

Hungary had received half of its EU funding, and the remaining half will arrive as no new seven-year European budget will be approved until Budapest receives its missing money, an unveiled threat to veto the proposal, which requires unanimity. He accused his political rivals of making concessions in securing frozen EU funds, including supporting Ukraine's EU membership, approving the migration pact, or abolishing the energy subsidy schemes, claims refuted numerous times by opposition leader Peter Magyar, who declared that Tisza is not in favour of the fast-tracked accession Ukraine to the EU.

Orban spoke at length about cultural issues, migration, Christianity, and gender, themes that will continue to define the political narrative in the upcoming campaign and are seen as themes bonding his conservative base.

The "future belongs to central Europe," as the region was protected from migration, he said, adding that western European countries were now "mixed societies with a growing Muslim population" and noted that in western Europe, Christianity and a nationally minded life were no longer linked.

Orban linked the decline of Christianity in Western Europe to liberal policies like legalizing same-sex marriage, viewing such shifts as emblematic of broader societal decay and contrasting them with Hungary's Christian-conservative values.

He identified four key areas: defence industry, energy, food supply and digital capabilities, as vital for Hungary's self-sufficiency to avoid being dragged into war amid rising global tensions.

He touched briefly on the improving Hungarian-US relations, saying political discrimination against Hungary ended, sanctions related to the Paks nuclear power plant were lifted, and significant US investments have been launched, with more to come.

Orban praised Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan as a "heavyweight" ally from Oradea who shares Hungary’s moral and cultural values, while also being a "Romanian patriot" committed to national interests. He said Bolojan supports strong Hungary-Romania relations and will do everything possible to advance them.

In response to a question about what he would do if he were to head the European Commission, Orban jokingly said his first step would be to resign. Then he went on to argue for building a "Europe of concentric circles."

The central idea of a multi-speed union is allowing some members to go faster, or slower, towards European integration with regard to certain policies and topics. The first circle would centre on security and could involve countries like Turkey and Ukraine, both of which aspire to join the EU though he has repeatedly voiced objections to Ukraine's accession.

The second circle, he suggested, would cover economic integration and the Schengen free movement zone, which he believes Hungary should remain part of. The third would consist of eurozone members, while the fourth would be made up of a group of "constitutional institutions" formed by member states committed to pursuing an "ever closer union."

He also accused EU leaders of risking a trade war with US President Donald Trump's administration that Europe "cannot win."

Political analysts evaluating Orban's speech said the prime minister still does not see the need to make substantive changes in governance, but only technical tweaks in communication, a sign of strategic inertia. Hungary's veteran leader refuses to address core policy issues, from economic issues to the state of healthcare, education, or the welfare state, even as most Hungarians say the crumbling of state services is one of their biggest concerns.

According to analysts, Orban believes that winning the communication war will outweigh the need for policy correction and Fidesz leadership still in the belief that its base remains solid, thanks to rural dominance and centralized media control. But polls show that even in smaller, rural areas, signs of dissent have emerged and the local politicians of Fidesz are coming under increased criticism.

After Orban's keynote address ended, opposition leader Peter Magyar held a rally in Szekesfehervar, a county seat of 100,000, not far from the prime minister's home village, once considered a Fidesz stronghold. In a passionate speech in front of thousands of people packed in the city's main square, Magyar branded the 2026 election as a referendum on Orban's "corrupt rule" and Hungary's future in the EU and Nato.

Hungary must decisively side with Europe and abandon a position of equidistance, according to the opposition leader, who also did not spare criticism of Orban. He compared the prime minister to a child who looted a candy shop, who would sulk after being caught, referring to the suspension of EU funds due to corruption concerns.

Magyar criticised Orban's speech as lacking vision, ignoring domestic issues affecting the lives of everyday people. If elected, he vowed to make sweeping anti-corruption reforms and join the European Public Prosecutor's Office to restore frozen EU funds. Magyar said his first foreign trip as prime minister would lead him to Warsaw, then Vienna and Brussels.

The 44-year-old challenged Orban to make a joint trip to Transcarpathia in western Ukraine to show solidarity and connect with Hungarian communities facing hardship amid the conflict.​