Eastern Europe / Opinion

INTERVIEW: The rags-to-riches rise of Freedom Holding Corp's Timur Turlov

Ben Aris in Dusseldorf September 15, 2025

As he rang the Nasdaq exchange bell to start trading in his company’s shares, the childhood dream of this Wall Street movie fan from a poor Moscow suburb had come true.

McFaul: Putin Is Making Trump Look Weak

Micheal McFaul in Stamford September 14, 2025

It’s time for a new, effective, and credible response. Nearly two dozen Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace. Nato forces promptly shot them down - the first direct military confrontation between Russia and Nato since the Ukraine war started

Ukraine facing a financial cliff as IMF warns Ukraine may need an extra $20bn of external funding in 2025

Ben Aris in Berlin September 12, 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded that Ukraine’s financing needs for 2026 and 2027 could be as much as $20bn higher than the government in Kyiv’s own estimates, as negotiations begin on securing a new aid package.

COMMENT: What were Russian drones doing in Poland?

Ben Aris in Berlin September 11, 2025

With no clear explanation from Moscow, theories have proliferated over how and why more than a dozen Russian drones crossed into Poland on September 10—and what this means for European security.

COMMENT: Need and loathing in Russia – unpacking the labour migration paradox

Katherine Spencer September 10, 2025

Central Asian guest workers face growing hardship.

COMMENT: France’s instability risks weakening Europe at a critical moment

Ben Aris in Berlin September 10, 2025

The French government fell on September 8, facing a 5.8% of GDP budget deficit it can neither fund nor reduce, plunging the Fifth Republic into yet another crisis at a critical time for Europe.

COMMENT: Putin’s pivot to China cements Russia’s vassalage to Beijing

Ben Aris in Berlin September 9, 2025

When Donald Trump declared that Joe Biden had made the “unthinkable” mistake of pushing Moscow into Beijing’s arms, the US president suggested their partnership was inherently fragile.

COMMENT: Potential sanctions on Russian oil keeps price outlook uncertain

Ben Aris in Berlin September 5, 2025

The ongoing Ukraine war ceasefire talks and the potential for new and even more extreme sanctions on Russian oil exports is keeping the outlook for the price of oil uncertain, Oxford Economics said in a note.

COMMENT: Russia’s size is its Achilles’ heel as Ukraine targets its oil infrastructure

Ben Aris in Berlin August 31, 2025

Since August the Armed Forces of Ukraine has mounted a continuous barrage on Russian refineries that has reduced output by 20%. Russia is so big that the Kremlin can’t protect all its pipelines and refineries.

COMMENT: Can Russia weather Ukrainian drone attack fuel crisis?

bne IntelliNews August 27, 2025

Russia is once again navigating a familiar crisis: surging gasoline prices, empty fuel pumps, and mounting pressure on its domestic supply system. This is not the first time Russia has faced a fuel crisis, but this one is especially bad.

COMMENT: Can Lukashenko capitalise on thaw in relations with the US?

bne IntelliNews August 26, 2025

When Donald Trump picked up the phone en route to his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15, his brief call with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko marked an unprecedented diplomatic moment.

Ukraine has made Russia’s refining sector a strategic liability

Ben Aris in Berlin August 24, 2025

Russia’s ability to produce fuel is under attack. In the Far Eastern region of Primorye, kilometre-long queues at filling stations have already appeared and petrol prices are soaring as a fuel crisis gathers momentum.

Western reliance on peacekeepers and arms sales in lieu of real security guarantees doom Russo-Ukraine peace talks to failure

Ben Aris in Berlin August 20, 2025

The coalition of the willing plan to send “reassurance forces” to Ukraine and buy Kyiv $100bn worth of new US weapons in lieu of giving Kyiv real collective security guarantees will doom imminent Russo-Ukraine peace negotiations to failure.

Russians have mixed feelings about Stalin, but only 2% condemn him

Ben Aris in Berlin August 20, 2025

In May of this year the world was shocked by the Moscow City government decision to unveil a grand bas-relief of Stalin at the Taganskaya metro station in the heart of Moscow.

COMMENT: Belarus potato crisis

bne IntelliNews August 19, 2025

Belarus economic mismanagement and Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko growing proclivity for Soviet-era fixes has caused a potato crisis that is emblematic of Belarus’ deepening economic problems.

COMMENT: What is Rosneft’s flagship Vostok Oil Project seeking to achieve?

bne IntelliNews August 13, 2025

Russia’s oil industry enjoyed a renaissance between 2008 and 2018 when about 30 new oil fields came online, significantly boosting production. The Vostok Oil fields hold some 45bn barrels of oil.

The unintended consequence of Trump's tariffs is pushing BRICS together

Ben Aris in Berlin August 13, 2025

President Donald Trump’s tariff salvo aimed at some of the BRICS economies is in danger badly of backfiring on US interests by driving the more moderate members of the world’s leading emerging economies into the anti-Western Sino-Russian alliance

COMMENT: Russia’s debt relief scheme masks war spending in regional budgets

bne IntelliNews August 12, 2025

A quiet reshuffling of budget lines in several Russian regions is revealing how the Kremlin is using a federal debt write-off programme to subsidise military recruitment, according to Janis Kluge, fellow at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik.

Confusion reigns over the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska

Ben Aris in Berlin August 11, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin presented the Trump administration this week with a proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine that will be discussed at a meeting between the two presidents on August 15 in Alaska.

COMMENT: Moscow's strategic defeat, Washington's noisy triumph in the South Caucasus

Robert Ananyan in Yerevan August 11, 2025

With the historic Washington deal, the US is seizing from Russia the role of main mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani process.

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