Eastern Europe / Opinion
Belarus bargains for relevance, and Washington plays along
In a surprising turn of diplomacy, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Keith Kellogg, met with Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk on June 21,and 14 political prisoners were subsequently set free from Belarussian prison.
COMMENT: The long road to a BRICS-led world order hits familiar obstacles
Brazil's upcoming BRICS summit exposes the bloc's growing pains as 21 members wrestle with deep divisions. The group's ambitious challenge to US financial dominance hits reality as internal disagreements threaten its push for global clout.
COMMENT: Black Sea becomes central to Europe’s evolving security order
As the war in Ukraine grinds on, the Black Sea is emerging as the key theatre in Europe’s long-term security contest with Russia, according to political analyst Dimitar Bechev of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
COMMENT: Georgia goes from sanctions-dodging transit country to Russia’s oil export backdoor into Europe
Georgia has long been suspected of being a major transit country for European sanctioned goods travelling to Russia, but now it appears the trade is flowing in the other direction: Georgia has become a major backdoor into the EU for Russian oil.
Russia provoking conflict in Western Balkans as leverage against West, think-tank says
Instability in the Western Balkans "presents Russia with a win-win scenario", says FPRI analysis.
COMMENT: Middle East oil shock scenarios pose inflation risk, but economic hit seen as modest
The threat of escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has returned geopolitical risk to the heart of the global oil market. Yet according to Oxford Economics, the macroeconomic fallout – even in the most extreme case – may be mild.
Britain already at war with Russia, warns Russia expert Fiona Hill
Trump's former Russia adviser Fiona Hill tells The Guardian Britain is already at war with Russia and can no longer rely on the United States as a stable ally.
COMMENT: Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb strategic strikes will harden, not soften, the Kremlin’s line on Ukraine
Ukraine’s spectacular Operation Spiderweb drone strikes on Russian strategic bombers on June 1 will harden, not soften, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s resolve to continue fighting in Ukraine, says Tatiana Stanovaya.
COMMENT: Falling oil revenues and rising costs triple Russia’s budget deficit, but to a manageable 1.7% GDP
Russia has already spent more than a third of the planned budget expenditures for this year as costs in all three of the major spending categories – housing, social, and military – are up y/y.
COMMENT: Ranking the top 60 economies’ exposure to US tariffs
US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 50% tariff hike on the EU has put the cat amongst the pigeons again. If he follows through then Europe, which is highly dependent on US trade, will be amongst the most damaged economies in the world.
COMMENT: Can the digital ruble free Russian from the SWIFT sanctions bind?
Russia's central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital ruble, is being positioned as a strategic tool to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and reduce reliance on the SWIFT international payment system.
COMMENT: A protracted Sino-US trade war is good news for Russia
The United States and China may have agreed to a temporary pause in their escalating tariff battle, but the underlying trade war shows no signs of abating. While markets remain wary of further shocks, one country – Russia – is the big winner.
COMMENT: Amid shrinking civic space, will the EBRD still uphold its democratic mandate?
As the global Democracy Index recorded a historic low in 2024, institutions tasked with upholding democratic values are under increasing pressure to adapt.
COMMENT: Lessons from Ukraine suggest India will not go to war with Pakistan
The vast economic and demographic imbalance between India and Pakistan strongly favours New Delhi in any theoretical war between the two rivals. Yet, lessons from the ongoing war in Ukraine suggest that India cannot win a total war.
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HALLIGAN: Power struggle in OPEC+ is pulling oil prices down
The oil market has entered choppy waters once again. Crude prices fell by a dramatic 18% in April y/y – the sharpest monthly drop since November 2021 – partly due to a global slowdown, but more due to a power struggle within OPEC+.
COMMENT: Trump’s tariff drive hits emerging markets as growth and inflation forecasts slide – Oxford Economics
President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies are already casting a long shadow over emerging market economies, with analysts cutting growth forecasts and warning of prolonged investment uncertainty and policy disruption.
Post-war order teetering – rights watchdog
Eurasia “at forefront” of assault on individual freedoms.
COMMENT: Middle Corridor makes progress, but playing second fiddle to the Northern Route
The Middle Corridor linking China to Europe through the South Caucasus and Central Asia has expanded significantly in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but its long-term prospects remain uncertain.
Think-tank urges EU to consider 'Big Bang' enlargement and sweeping reforms
European Policy Centre analysts call on the EU to abandon its piecemeal, hesitant approach to enlargement and commit to ‘permachange’: a permanent state of adaptation in response to cascading crises.
COMMENT: Embracing “Greater Central Asia” has become a strategic imperative for US
Wider region increasingly seen as arena in which major powers’ interests, such as in sourcing critical minerals, collide and converge.