It’s time for a new, effective, and credible response.

This week, nearly two dozen Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace. Nato forces promptly shot them down. This was the first direct military confrontation between Russia and Nato since Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The Russian incursion, even if not intended to attack Polish targets as the Kremlin has claimed, constitutes a serious escalation of conflict between Russia and Nato.

Tragically, Nato has not responded with a unified message and shared policy response yet. Polish leaders, citing their own assessments and Nato intelligence, stated clearly that the Russian drones represented a deliberate attack. Putin was not trying to instigate World War III (Hitler and Stalin did start World War II when they invaded Poland in 1939). Instead, the Russian dictator was testing the alliance of democracies to see if Nato countries would respond in a unified manner. Putin may also have been probing to see how different societies within the alliance would react to the intervention, since not all Poles, Europeans, or Americans support continued military and economic assistance to Ukraine. In addition, Putin could be creating leverage for future negotiations to end the war; for instance, he could pledge not to attack Nato countries in return for some territorial concession from Ukraine. While we can only speculate about Putin’s intentions, it seems hard to believe that it was an accident. Nineteen drones do not go astray on their own. And if it was an accident, Russian officials could have quickly said so to diffuse the moment. They did not.

But President Trump did. When asked about the incident, the leader of the most powerful country in the Nato alliance said, "It could have been a mistake." Mr. Trump speculated so without citing any intelligence, a casual comment that elicited a sharp rebuff from several European leaders. Trump’s other reaction was more mysterious when he posted on Truth Social, “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!” That post provided no clarity regarding the American policy response. Before Trump’s comments, the US Ambassador to Nato, Matthew Whitaker, made a much more forceful statement on X, stating, “We stand by our Nato Allies in the face of these airspace violations and will defend every inch of Nato territory.” But when Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not echo the same, and Trump subsequently suggested it was an accident, Europeans quickly forgot Whitaker’s strong words. The official American statement during consultations among Nato allies, delivered not by Whitaker but by a lower-level diplomat, was much more tepid, sparking further worries among allies.

President Trump and his administration need to clean this up. Now is not the moment to even hint at Nato disunity or allow critics to make suggestions that Trump is yet again afraid to confront Putin. Trump should use this moment to finally show strength both in words and actions. Trump and his administration frequently invoked Reagan’s “Peace through Strength” as their motto, too. It’s time to make that commitment credible.

First, President Trump should make a clear statement that echoes what European leaders have already said. He could even use the language that his ambassador to Nato published soon after the event. Even if it was a mistake—a hypothesis that so far is not supported by evidence— Trump could condemn the action in categorical terms. Even those causing damage accidentally must be held accountable.

Second, Trump should finally realize that Putin is mocking him. Putin is making Trump look weak. After the bilateral Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, Putin did not reduce his attacks on Ukrainian citizens—just the opposite. In addition, since meeting with Trump in Alaska, Putin has shown no greater proclivity to engage seriously in negotiations to end his war in Ukraine—just the opposite. And now, Putin has attacked—or at least violated the sovereignty—of a Nato ally. That never happened while Biden was president. Trump likes to claim that Putin would never have invaded Ukraine if he were president (conveniently forgetting that Putin’s war in Ukraine started in 2014, not 2022, and continued in eastern Ukraine throughout Trump’s entire first term). Well, now Trump is president, and Putin is most likely deliberately sending drones into Nato. Trump is not deterring Putin. Trump is encouraging Putin. That must end.

 

Michael McFaul is a professor at Stamford, advisor to the Ukrainian government and the former US ambassador to Russia.

This comment first appeared in his substack here. Subscribe to his substack here.