The plan to build a $6.9bn railway that will stretch from Uzbekistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan’s seaports is facing multiple hurdles. Security risks, financing challenges, difficult terrain and the Taliban’s lack of international recognition as the rulers of Afghanistan are among the difficulties that could thwart the ambition of the landlocked Uzbeks to reach the Arabian Sea coast.

The 647-kilometre (402-mile) railroad is designed to connect Termez in Uzbekistan near the Afghan border with Pakistan, taking a route that passes through Afghanistan’s Naibabad, Maidanshahr, Logar and Kharlachi. Once operational, it is expected to carry up to 20mn tonnes of cargo annually and cut transport times from 35 days to just three to five days.

What the eventual cost of the Trans-Afghan Railway will be, however, remains uncertain. Uzbekistan’s latest estimated price tag is $6.9bn, but estimates have ranged from $4.6bn to $7bn and observers warn that Afghanistan’s difficult terrain could push the costs higher.

Pakistan has pledged to finance the section crossing Afghan territory, but analysts say securing broader investment will be difficult while the Taliban remains unrecognised internationally.

“At present, the deterioration of Afghanistan’s security situation makes it even harder to secure credit lines with financial institutions,” political analyst Yunus Sharifli  last week told The Times of Central Asia (TCA).

“The Taliban continues to struggle to establish legitimacy in Afghanistan. Yet the country as a whole remains bogged down in ethnic conflicts.”

Restrictions on women’s rights and freedoms under Taliban rule are another complication in efforts to attract funding from multilateral lenders and donor governments, who link loans and other financial assistance to governance standards.

The fact that the railway’s route will pass through the Salang Pass in the Hindu Kush mountains at 3,500 metres is, meanwhile, raising concerns about engineering feasibility and seasonal disruptions.

"Unrealistic" targets
Uzbek journalist Yuri Chernogaev wrote on his Telegram channel that construction targets were unrealistic. “Builders are especially focused on tunnels. The figures we are being told are absolutely unrealistic. Compare: Europe, with its advanced technologies, built the Gotthard railway tunnel [through the Alps in Switzerland] in a much more ‘favourable’ location than the Hindu Kush, but it still took 15 years. Its length is 51 km and its cost was $10bn.”

According to TCA, the Afghan section alone would require 1,200 structures, including 360 bridges and 70 km of tunnels. Heavy snowfall could render the line inoperable for months unless additional tunnels are built.

While western governments have shown little appetite for involvement, Russia, the only country in the world to recognise the Taliban as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan, has expressed interest in the railway. Moscow may view the project as a chance to strengthen its influence in Central Asia and develop new trade routes southward amid western sanctions.

“The project, stretching from the far north to the far south, may also offer Central Asian countries an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative,” Sharifli was further reported as saying. “Economically, Russia views the Trans-Afghan Railway as an opportunity to enter South Asian markets and open new trade routes. This railway would allow Russia to export energy, minerals and industrial goods to Pakistan, India and other South Asian states.”

Feasibility paper
Uzbek deputy transport minister Jasurbek Choriev in July told state television that the July 17 signing by Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan of a framework intergovernmental agreement to develop a feasibility paper for the railway was a breakthrough moment, saying the government hopes to use the study to attract further investment.

“This agreement is a crucial first step we’ve been aiming for over a long time. It will help justify the project not only for us, but also for our international partners,” Choriev said on O’zbekiston 24.

Sharifli, however, said the chances of construction starting soon are slim. “In the short term – within the next five years – the likelihood of the project being implemented is low because security, financing and diplomatic isolation create too many uncertainties,” he stated.

Since 2016, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has prioritised normalising relations with Afghanistan and fostering stability in the region.

Following the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Uzbekistan said it was stepping up as a reliable partner, investing $243mn in 2025 in four Afghan energy projects and helping expand trade and transit links.