Ukraine will share a revised peace plan with the US on Tuesday that is aimed at ending Russia's war, after talks in London between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the leaders of the so-called E3 - France, Germany and Britain.
The leaders met at short notice in London to thrash out a counter offer to the US revised 27-point peace plan (27PPP) that Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed with US envoys Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Moscow meeting on December 3.
The new E3 offer contains 20 points. However, it makes no concession on territory and demands strong security guarantees from the US, according to reports, the two key sticking points in the negotiations. Putin is insisting on full recognition of Russia’s sovereignty over the Donbas and the Crimea.
Following the Moscow meeting, the US envoys met with the Ukrainian negotiating team in Miami for a second time and reportedly were pushing both the Kremlin and Bankova to make concessions and find some middle ground. It appears some sort of land swap deal is under discussion, however, both Zelenskiy and Putin appear to have dug their heels in over the question of territory and no progress has been made yet.
Trump is pushing a swift deal to end the war in Ukraine. However, the E3 allies warned Zelenskiy “not to trust Trump”, according to a leaked conversation last week, revealed by Der Spiegel, as a transatlantic rift between the EU and US positions on supporting Ukraine continues to widen. French President Emmanuel Macron privately warned Zelenskiy that the US could “betray” Ukraine on questions of territory and essential security guarantees, that Bankova is demanding before it will contemplate calling a ceasefire.
Zelenskiy told reporters after the meeting that the revised plan comprised 20 points, but that there was still no agreement on the issue of giving up territory. After the original US-sponsored 28-point peace plan (28PPP) was released, the EU has come up with multiple versions of the plan, including a 19-point peace plan (19PPP) and the European Parliament non-binding resolution (EPR), but these are packed with conditions the Kremlin rejected out of hand.
There might be some wiggle room on the question of the US security guarantees as the Trump administration appears to have changed its position on the need to underpin Ukraine’s security. Previously, Trump indicated that the US would not provide any sort of guarantees at all. However, the 28PPP included a vague promise of “US security guarantees.” A more detailed draft version of these guarantees, reported by Axios, describes a decade -long commitment to real guarantees that includes an Article 5-like commitment by the US to put to boots on the ground in Ukraine should Russia re-invade after a peace deal is done.
The version presented to Putin appears to be the original US 28PPP version and Europe’s input was completely ignored by the White House. Both the Russian and US sides agreed to classify the details of the discussion going forward.
"The mood of the Americans, in principle, is for finding a compromise," Zelenskiy told reporters in London. "Of course, there are complex issues related to the territory, and a compromise has not yet been found there." He repeated his oft-stated position that Ukraine cannot give up any part of its land.
Details of the new 20PPP proposal will be key as it will be the first EU-sponsored version produced after detailed discussions with the Kremlin shared with Bankova to clarify Russia’s position. If it contains the same red lines, like Ukraine’s eventual membership in Nato or Nato peacekeepers stations in Ukraine, similar to the previous EU versions, then talks will hit a brick wall.
In that case, the US is expected to walk away from the negotiations and leave the EU to deal with it. A new National Security Strategy (NSS) released last week explicitly calls for a “quick resolution” to the Ukraine conflict and also made clear that under a new “burden sharing” approach to security, the US will no longer continue to automatically support its Nato allies. Russia was also downgraded from “strategic rival” to merely “Europe’s problem” in the new concept.
After the E3 meeting in London, Zelenskiy flew to Brussels, where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa said in social media posts that any peace deal had to “respect Ukraine's sovereignty” and “guarantee its long-term security” suggesting the new 20-point peace proposal still takes a hard line on the disputed points of territories and guarantees.
The London talks also touched on the issue of the use of Russia’s frozen assets in the EU. Here too the EU has split with the US on the question of the use of those assets: the US wants to use them to set up a $100bn joint US-Ukraine reconstruction fund, whereas the EU wants to use them to back a controversial Reparation Loan that will be voted on on December 19.