Croatians will go to the polls on December 22 for the first round of the presidential election. 

The latest opinion polls indicate this will be a three-way race between the incumbent Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, former prime minister Zoran Milanovic backed by the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) and folk singer turned politician Miroslav Skoro, who has the backing of a variety of centre-right and right-wing parties and individuals. 

Grabar-Kitarovic and Milanovic are virtually neck and neck in the first round, according to the latest major poll by the Promocije-Plus agency for broadcaster RTL, with Skoro just a few percentage points behind. 

But while polls give Grabar-Kitarovic, the candidate of the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), a narrow lead in the first round, they also indicate Skoro has the potential to beat either Grabar-Kitarovic or Milanovic should he make it through to the second. 

And with around 7% of voters still undecided, the contest is open for any two of the three to face each other in the runoff on January 5, 2020. 

The trio lead a crowded field of candidates, who faced off in a televised debate on December 17, with the issues raised ranging from immigration to abortion, corruption to Croatia’s relations with its neighbours.

Skoro in particular has advocated for an increase in the powers of the president, who at present has a largely ceremonial role. He has slammed Grabar-Kitarovic for not seeking to expand the powers of the office she currently holds, and some of the fiercest rhetoric during the debate was directed at Grabar-Kitarovic by Skoro. 

“Miroslav Skoro, the ‘third contender’ whose approval has been picking up a lot, immediately launched a fierce attack on pres Kolinda KG, saying the debate is being ‘directed’ by her. He’s trying to outdo her on the right and steal away HDZ votes,” commented Tena Prelec, research fellow at the University of Oxford’s Department of Politics and International Relations, on Twitter during the debate.

“Biggest themes so far #corruption & #emigration, and the latter as a consequence of the former. Definitely the right diagnosis, pity that several of the people on the podium might have something to do with it,” Prelec added. 

Despite the limits on the president’s role, Grabar-Kitarovic sought to persuade voters to back her for a second term based on her record in office. "I have been your president for five years and have been among our people and listened to your problems. I have also repositioned Croatia from a region in Central Europe to a place on the Mediterranean, where it belongs. I’ve raised the issue of demography and I was the first Croatian diplomat,” she said at the start of the debate, Total Croatia News reported. 

However, the president made a high profile gaffes which could count against her especially with a high-profile challenger on the right. She sang "Happy birthday" to controversial Zagreb mayor Milan Bandic in November, and said she would bring him cakes in prison if he was convicted for corruption. Bandic has been indicted in several corruption cases. Despite Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic’s claim she was joking, the incident disturbed many voters for whom corruption is one of their main concerns. 

Milanovic referenced his own years of political experience — he was prime minister from December 2011 to January 2016 — and told viewers he wanted to “make our country happier and freer”. 

Meanwhile, Skoro, a former folk singer, stressed his role as a political outsider. “I am a man who fights against the system. I am proposing radical changes and am seeking increased powers,” he said.

The outcome of the election will have a significant impact on domestic politics in the run-up to the next general election, which must take place before the end of 2020.

Should Grabar-Kitarovic lose the election — or even fail to make it to the second round of voting — it would be a setback for the ruling HDZ that is backing her candidacy, and could destabilise Plenkovic’s government. 

Milanovic, meanwhile, is looking to make a political comeback after his party lost the 2015 and 2016 general elections to the HDZ, after which he stepped down from the SDP’s leadership and announced his retirement. 

A win for Skoro would be a blow to both of Croatia’s two main political parties, and would throw open the contest for the 2020 general election.