Croatia is on track to see average temperatures rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius by 2070, bringing longer heatwaves, droughts and a higher risk of wildfires, but timely action could still blunt the worst effects of climate change, according to a report from the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) viewed by news agency Hina.

Temperatures have been steadily rising across the country since the mid-20th century, in line with global warming trends, according to the DHMZ’s . The sharpest increases are recorded in the summer months, when both daytime highs and overnight lows are climbing.

“In today’s climate, a maximum of 33 degrees Celsius is considered a hot summer day. By mid-century, that same day could reach 35 degrees and become a common occurrence,” said Sara Ivasić, of the DHMZ’s Department of Climate Change and Biometeorology, quoted by Hina. 

Warm nights – when temperatures do not drop below 20 degrees – have become increasingly frequent. While such nights were rare in inland Croatia in the 1990s, they now occur up to 10 times each summer, Ivasić noted. Along the Adriatic coast, as many as 91% of nights during the summer of 2004 were classified as “warm”. 

Projections under a moderate emissions scenario show summer maximum temperatures could rise by 2.0-2.4 degrees by 2070, depending on the region. Central Croatia may see an additional 7.5-10 hot days each summer, while coastal areas could experience up to 17.5 more.

Nights are also set to become warmer, with the number of hot nights expected to rise by about 20-22% in central regions and by 22% along the coast. The lack of relief after sunset poses mounting health risks, especially in cities where the urban heat island effect can make temperatures up to 10 degrees higher than in surrounding rural areas.

Rainfall patterns are also expected to shift, with summer precipitation dropping by as much as 20% in Dalmatia and mountainous regions. More frequent droughts would threaten crop yields, strain water supplies and raise the risk of wildfires, while the peak tourist season could become less attractive.

“These changes are not just projections for the distant future – they are already underway,” Ivasić said. “Our society will need to adapt, whether by modernising agriculture, improving water management or introducing measures to reduce heat stress in cities.”

She added that reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in adaptation could still prevent the most damaging outcomes, while also creating opportunities such as extending the tourist season into spring and autumn.