China will leave its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a 15th straight month on August 20, Reuters reports following a survey of 25 market participants.

The central bank's decision to hold key borrowing costs reflects a deliberate pivot towards fiscal deployment rather than monetary easing, as policymakers move to protect squeezing commercial bank margins while funding targeted infrastructure projects.

All 25 respondents expected the central bank to keep the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%. The rate gets calculated monthly after 20 designated commercial banks submit proposed rates to the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

Market consensus remains firm despite a batch of weak July data. Industrial output, retail sales, and credit growth all showed fading domestic demand across the economy.

Analysts expect Beijing to speed up budgeted infrastructure spending instead of cutting interest rates. Focus will remain on public spending execution, with little chance of an LPR reduction from the PBOC, Citi analysts said in a note.

At July's Politburo meeting, top officials promised to support the economy by accelerating fiscal spending on existing projects rather than launching massive new stimulus programs.

The PBOC said last week that it will maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, but stopped short of signaling explicit cuts to policy rates or reserve requirement ratios.

Meanwhile, commercial bank net interest margins (NIM) rose 0.01 percentage points to 1.41% in the second quarter of 2026, marking the first quarterly rise since 2022 despite remaining near record lows.