United Nations and European officials have warned that the forced return of millions of Afghans from neighbouring Iran and Pakistan could provide fresh recruits for Islamic State’s Khorasan affiliate, the local The Khaama Press News Agency reports.

According to UN data, more than 2.6mn Afghans have returned since January, many of them after decades abroad. Analysts caution that the abrupt influx risks creating conditions that extremist groups can exploit. Despite Taliban assurances that security has been restored, ISIS-K remains active, particularly in eastern and northern Afghanistan reports suggest.

Hans-Jakob Schindler, a former UN counter-terrorism official, told AFP the risk was “very high” that the group would seek to tap into the displaced population. An unnamed EU diplomat also noted that many Afghans who turn to armed groups do so for economic reasons rather than purely ideological ones, underlining the potential impact of rising poverty, Khaama Press adds.

Humanitarian agencies have in recent weeks been describing the plight of returnees as increasingly dire. The UN refugee agency estimates that as many as 4mn people could be forced back to Afghanistan by the end of this year, most without employment, housing or access to essential services. The World Bank has calculated that nearly half of the population is already living below the poverty line.

Regional governments are also voicing alarm. Russia has said that around 23,000 militants from some 20 organisations are currently operating inside Afghanistan, with ISIS-K running training camps in several provinces. Moscow, which has formally recognised Taliban authorities, has identified the group as its most serious security concern in Central Asia.

Into all of this the US is now pushing to regain control of Bagram airbase north of Kabul although at present there are no real indications this will happen.

The UN has previously described Afghanistan’s situation as a “ticking time bomb”, warning that multiple foiled plots in Europe between 2023 and 2025 were connected to ISIS-linked networks.