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Poland’s radical right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party received 28.3% support in a United Surveys poll released on July 28, putting it ahead of Civic Coalition (KO), the main party of the incumbent coalition government, which dropped to 25.8%.
PiS dropped 0.9pp compared to the previous poll, conducted earlier this month, while KO suffered a 2.4pp fall. The new survey, the first to reflect the impact of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government reshuffle, indicates that the changes in his cabinet have not helped his party regain momentum. In contrast, the far-right Confederation party climbed to 17.4%, up 4.9pp in just two weeks – the largest gain of any party – and now ranks third.
Civic Coalition’s decline follows the July 23 government shake-up, in which Tusk replaced ministers of justice, and health, among others, in a shot at recovery in the polls.
Support for the Left – also a member of the Tusk-led coalition – held steady at 6.7%, enough to remain in Parliament. Parties in Poland need to win at least 5% of the vote to win seats in the Parliament. The minimum for coalitions is 8%.
Another far-right group, the Confederation of the Polish Crown reached 5.4%, also crossing the electoral threshold.
Three other parties – Razem (Together) at 3.6%, and two other coalition members – Poland 2050 at 4.1% and the Polish People’s Party at 3.7% – would exit parliament were an election held today.
A PiS-Confederation alliance would hold 266 seats, above the 231-seat threshold needed for a parliamentary majority. If the Crown party joined that bloc, the total would rise to 282 seats – 43 short of a constitutional majority.
KO and the Left would secure only 178 seats combined, well below the number needed to govern.
The poll was conducted by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska from July 25 to 27 using CATI and CAWI methods on a sample of 1,000 respondents. The undecided vote stood at 5.1%, down from 9.7% in the previous poll.
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