Ukraine’s real GDP increased 2.9% y/y in 8M21, accelerating from a 2.1% y/y growth in 7M21, according to estimates published on October 18 by the Ministry of Economic Development.
The estimates are based on the General Production Index (GPI), which takes into account manufacturing results during the period.
In 8M21, the GPI growth accelerated to 2.1% y/y (from 1.3% in 7M21), the ministry estimated. In particular, the improvement was due to a significant upsurge in agriculture in August. Meanwhile, the contribution of trade to GPI was negative in July-August as a result of a decline in wholesale trade.
The advancement of the economy in August was significant. Given an expected historic record-high grain crop in 2021 coupled with the low comparative base of agricultural output in 2020, the agricultural sector might boost Ukraine’s economic growth through the end of 2021.
Analysts at Concorde Capital expect Ukraine’s GDP to increase 4.1% y/y in 2021 (vs. a 4.0% y/y decline in 2020).
Earlier this month the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded Ukraine’s economic forecast for 2021 to 3.5% GDP from 4% in its April prognosis, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on October 12.