Poland’s decision to close its border with Belarus in response to the quadrennial Zapad-2025 military exercises and Russian drone incursion on September 10 has abruptly severed one of the fastest-growing trade arteries between China and the EU.

The shutdown “cuts off a €25bn-a-year trade artery between China and the EU,” said Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs and founder of the Institute of the Future in a social media post. The closed crossing also halted a route that carries “90% of rail freight between China and the EU,” he added.

The link is part of the China-driven Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) network of rail links spreading across Eurasia designed to link the land mass with both the European and Asian markets. The terminuses of the EU and China and all the countries in between, are keen to extend their overland connections with a series of railways that include the northern route and the Middle Corridor amongst others that have been growing quickly.

The impact of the closure of the Belarusian border is significant. The land corridor already represents 3.7% of all EU–China trade, up from 2.1% a year earlier. While that share remains small compared to seaborne shipments, its importance lies in speed and reliability. Gerashchenko noted that in total, “the land transit comprises 3% of all China’s exports.” By comparison, in 2024 Russia represented 4-5% of China’s total exports and Europe accounted for 15%, worth about $570bn.

Poland’s government underlined that the decision was driven by security imperatives rather than economics. Warsaw stated that “the logic of trade” was being replaced by “the logic of security,” underscoring the geopolitical risks attached to the Belt and Road corridors.

China has invested heavily in land transit infrastructure towards Europe and fingered Belarus as a bridgehead into the European markets. As bne IntelliNews reported in 2016, China built the Great Stone industrial park to act as a production and logistics hub for the European end of the rail link to Asia.

According to Gerashchenko, Beijing “upgrades the existing railroad systems by introducing IT solutions and other improvements,” enabling customs processing times to fall by 70%, “from days to hours.” Alongside Russia, China has also drawn up plans to reform the railroad network, a move that signals its intent to expand trade with Europe despite the mounting political frictions.

Belarus and Poland occupy a pivotal position in this strategy. “This signals that China plans to increase its trade with Europe. Belarus and Poland are key here,” Gerashchenko said.