Turkey's launch of its first offshore wind tender could reshape the country's power-generation mix if backed by sound policy and strong execution, according to a report, Turkiye Power Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast to 2035, by data and analytics firm GlobalData.

Turkey's broader renewable strategy targets 120GW of combined solar and wind capacity by 2035 and explicitly includes offshore wind, with the government aiming for 5GW of offshore capacity by that date across four candidate zones: Saros Bay, Gokceada, Bozcaada and Edremit. A draft specification has been released for a 1GW offshore wind tender under the country's YEKA renewable-auction scheme, including long-term licensing, construction deadlines tied to approvals, and a price range of $0.07-0.11 per kWh.

GlobalData's own forecast is considerably more modest than the government's ambition: offshore wind capacity is not expected to enter the generation mix until 2032, with only around 1.3GW likely to be operational by 2035, producing roughly 2.7TWh — well short of the 5GW target.

"Turkiye's launch of its first offshore wind YEKA tender is a watershed moment," said Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, power analyst at GlobalData. "It signals a shift beyond onshore renewables. If planned well, with clear rules and timely permitting, it could mobilise investment, deliver clean, firm power, and help the country reduce its dependence on thermal generation."

The report attributes the gap between ambition and likely outcome to four main obstacles: complex, multi-agency permitting covering environmental review, seabed licensing and marine regulation; the scale of infrastructure investment needed for grid connections, subsea cables, landing stations and onshore network reinforcement; financial risk from inflation, currency volatility and supply-chain disruption; and technical and environmental challenges including variable seabed quality and harsh marine conditions.

"To close this gap and help projects reach their full potential, several measures are critical," Saibasan said, pointing to streamlined permitting with clear approval pathways and firm timelines, advance coordination of grid infrastructure and port facilities, and financial mechanisms to protect developers against inflation and currency risk, alongside incentives for using local components. "For incumbents and newcomers alike, Turkiye's offshore wind YEKA tender will test the gap between ambition and delivery," he concluded, adding that auction design must be transparent and environmental and marine permits expedited if the country is to close it.