A South Africa–Europe iron ore shipping corridor could begin deploying ammonia-fuelled bulk carriers from 2029 and potentially scale toward full decarbonisation by 2035, according to a feasibility study published by the Global Maritime Forum.

The findings reflect scenario assessments carried out with a consortium formed in 2023 to develop a green shipping corridor on the route that includes Anglo American (LON:AAL, JSE:AGL), CMB.TECH, Freeport Saldanha, Vuka Marine (a joint venture part-owned by Oceana Group (JSE:OCE)), and Engie (EPA:ENGI).

The consortium is working to establish a clean shipping link between Saldanha Bay in South Africa’s Western Cape and the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. The corridor is positioned to become one of the first Global South–to–North green maritime trade routes.

By 2035, the port could supply bunkering services to all corridor vessels locally, creating a dual-purpose facility that continues mineral exports while serving international shipping, according to the Global Maritime Forum.

“This phased approach gives shipowners and fuel producers a clear timeline to work toward, and we now need coordinated action from policymakers and industry to make this a reality by 2029,” said Shanon Neumann, Associate: Investment Facilitation at Freeport Saldanha.

“However, to help Saldanha Bay transition quickly, blending public and private funding can unlock investment in infrastructure and reduce the risks of early projects.”

South Africa has identified the maritime sector as a key potential offtaker for emerging green hydrogen production. Saldanha Bay has appointed the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) to coordinate the first phase of its Green Hydrogen Master Plan, which aims to position the port as a hub for green hydrogen and ammonia production and export. Converting green hydrogen to ammonia is viewed as a potentially cost-competitive fuel pathway.

The study indicates that green hydrogen projects under development near Boegoebaai, Saldanha and Walvis Bay could meet projected fuel demand for the corridor, including in a high-demand scenario of up to 22 bulk carriers per year by 2035. In the initial years of operation, however, ammonia-fuelled vessels are expected to bunker in Rotterdam, where ammonia handling infrastructure and safety management systems are already more advanced.

Further progress in Saldanha Bay’s green ammonia production and bunkering capacity is expected to be required over the medium term. The Global Maritime Forum study notes that international safety frameworks for ammonia as a marine fuel are still under development, with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) currently preparing interim guidelines for ammonia use and bunkering, expected to be considered in 2025–26. These guidance standards will influence port infrastructure investment, crew training requirements and vessel design specifications.

The International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework (NZF), now set to be revisited in 2026 following the decision earlier this month to delay adoption, would further strengthen the case, with fuel standards, emissions targets, and market-based incentives that reward zero-emission fuels.

"With binding global regulations delayed for now, there remains a business case to be made for green ammonia on this corridor," said Marieke Beckmann, Global Maritime Forum deputy director of decarbonisation.

"The role of national and local governments becomes increasingly important in incentivising the adoption of scalable zero emission fuels. This, combined with EU measures, will help position South Africa as a competitive supplier of clean maritime fuel.”