An international team of scientists from Britain, Switzerland, Israel and the United States has analysed the composition of more than 60 mineral formations found in caves located in the delta of Siberia's Lena River, revealing evidence that permafrost could vanish within decades, Russian media reported on July 30.

The research demonstrates the vulnerability of Earth's climate system as rising temperatures threaten to trigger a chain reaction of carbon release that could accelerate global warming beyond current projections.

Permafrost is soil that remains frozen for at least two consecutive years. In many Arctic regions, it has remained frozen for tens or even hundreds of thousands of years. But since the early 2000s, feedback loops of shrinking sea ice, snow loss and warming soils have triggered faster Arctic warming. In the winter of 2024-25, the Arctic experienced record high temperatures as warming accelerated again and is now running seven times faster in the North Barents Sea than the rest of the world, researchers have found, as bne IntelliNews reported. 

Stalactites and stalagmites discovered inside the caves indicate the presence of meltwater in the region millions of years ago, with uranium-lead dating methods determining their age at approximately 8.7mn years, dating to the late Miocene period. During that period, the climate was 4.5°C (8.1°F) warmer, and even coastal areas of the Arctic Ocean did not freeze, according to the scientific findings.

Experts believe that if average global temperatures rise by the same 4.5°C (8.1°F), permafrost in regions including Canada, Siberia, Mongolia and the United States will disappear, surviving only in high-altitude areas and at significant depths.

Carbon release from thawing permafrost would intensify the warming process, creating a feedback loop that could dramatically accelerate climate change beyond current predictions.

The discovered deposits, located directly in the zone of modern permafrost, provide evidence that warm conditions once prevailed in areas that are now permanently frozen, likely extending across the entire Northern Hemisphere.

Exceeding the 4.5°C (8.1°F) temperature threshold leads to permafrost disappearance, allowing for more accurate development of climate scenarios, carbon emission forecasts, and necessary infrastructure preparations such as building reinforcements in areas prone to permafrost thawing.

The research has limitations as it is based on data obtained exclusively from Siberia and extrapolates findings to the entire northern region, with local geological and climatic features potentially influencing the speed of permafrost disappearance.

Thawing permafrost threatens the structural integrity of homes, roads and vital infrastructure. Pipelines rupture, buildings crack, and entire settlements begin to slump into the ground. The costs – financial, social and ecological – are mounting.

According to data published by Nordic research institute Nordregio, as of 2017 nearly 5mn people lived in permafrost zones in and around the Arctic Circle, including in Canada, Alaska and much of northeast Siberia.

These include major urban centres like Norilsk and Yakutsk, as well as dozens of smaller towns. Indigenous communities in these regions, whose traditional ways of life depend on frozen ground for stability and seasonal predictability, are among those most affected.