Russia’s economy could enter recession as early as 2026, even if the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) continues monetary policy easing, with key forward indicators nearing critical levels, the think tank Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) announced.

As previously followed by bne IntelliNews, the signs of a slowdown in Russia are clear, with analysts guessing whether the economy, overheated by the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, is headed for a “soft” or “hard” landing.

Whether the Russian economy is headed for a recession and the exhaustion of its growth drivers is now a part of the policy debate.

According to Vedomosti, the CMASF’s composite leading indicator (CLI) cited by Vedomosti reached 0.1 in May, up from 0.07 in April, which signals a possible shift into recession. 

Although still below the 0.18 threshold, which is considered recessionary, analysts project that this level will be breached in the coming months. Key recessionary factors in the CMAF analysis include a worsening current account balance, persistent tightness in domestic money markets, and external pressures from a slowing US economy.

bne IntelliNews already reported that a strong disinflationary trend finally allowed the CBR to cut the key interest rates to help the cooling economy.

But even if the CBR lowers its key rate to the bottom end of its forecast range, the CLI is expected to hit the critical level by October, the CMAF warns. That would imply negative real GDP growth from early 2026.

Chief economist at T-Invest Sofya Donets, cited by Vedomosti, also warned that economic stagnation is already visible across multiple sectors, while the investment climate is weakening. She forecasts Russia could “bottom out” by late 2026 or early 2027. 

Other economists believe that even aggressive rate cuts would face transmission lags, while deeper monetary easing risks accelerating inflation and warn of “hard landing” risks.