Foreign e-commerce platforms selling directly to Romanian consumers could cause direct and indirect tax losses of up to RON10.86bn (€2.12bn), 0.5% of current GDP, annually by 2027, assuming the number of parcels not subject to double duties compared to this year, according to a new impact study published by the Romanian Association of Online Stores (ARMO) on August 7, reported Curs de Guvernare.

The analysis, carried out by independent financial analyst Iancu Guda, highlights what local retailers describe as a growing imbalance between domestic e-commerce players and large international platforms such as Temu, Shein, AliExpress and Trendyol. These platforms often send low-value parcels — below the €150 threshold — directly to consumers, bypassing duties and generating limited fiscal contributions to Romania's state budget.

“We are talking about at least €2.1bn per year in direct and indirect tax losses for Romania, [which is] enormous,” said Guda. “In addition, physical stores in established categories may lose a relevant part of their traffic, with severe effects on investments, employment and contributions to the public budget.”

ARMO president Cristi Movilă said the analysis reveals not just a competitive disadvantage but a major public revenue issue. “We are not only talking about competitiveness, but also about significant losses for the public budget in an already complicated fiscal and economic context,” Movilă said.

The study projects that approximately 78mn parcels with a declared value under €150 will be shipped into Romania from non-EU countries in 2025, averaging €50 per item. This would represent around four parcels per capita, regardless of age or location, and significantly more (over 10) for active online shoppers.

In a higher-impact scenario, if the number or value of parcels doubles, the direct imports through these platforms could reach RON39.78bn (€7.8bn), equivalent to 28.8% of Romania’s total retail market, up from the 14.4% estimated for the end of 2025.