Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on July 30 that there are “many signs” that suggest the war in Ukraine may soon be at least temporarily halted but warned that even a ceasefire would not change Poland’s policy of building up its army.

Speaking at the Air Force Institute of Technology in Warsaw, Tusk stressed that Poland must “remain vigilant” and continue its military modernisation efforts regardless of developments on the eastern front.

“There is a good chance, there are many signs indicating that the Russian-Ukrainian war may at least be suspended in the near future. But this does not change our situation in any way,” he said as cited by TVP World.

“Poland must be ready to defend itself regardless of developments on the Russian-Ukrainian front. And we cannot waste a single hour or day in this race for a modern army,” he added.

No details were provided by Tusk on what specific signs were suggesting a potential suspension of hostilities in Ukraine. Fighting has intensified on multiple fronts and especially in the battle for control over the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk recently as half-hearted diplomatic efforts to call a ceasefire continued with the third meeting in Istanbul on July 23.

Thanks to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, Poland is in the process of creating the largest conventional army in Europe. While the other Nato members committed to increasing defence spending from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035 at the recent Nato summit in The Hague, Poland is likely to step up its defence investment from 4.7% expected this year to more than 5% as soon as next year.

Tusk’s comments come with concerns over Europe taking on the entire burden of supporting and supplying bulk of Ukraine’s needs, adding to the festering Ukraine fatigue, as the war drags into its fourth year.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is the most vocal opponent of the sanctions on Russia and Europe’s support of Ukraine by Europe. Previously, he has used Budapest’s EU veto as leverage to win concessions for Hungary, but trailing in the polls ahead of a 2026 general election, he has built opposition to Ukraine support and EU membership into the heart of his re-election bid. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has also been a willing ally, and Serbian President Aleksander Vucic, an EU member aspirant, has also been sitting on the fence.

Former Nato general and Czech President Petr Pavel has also publicly expressed doubts about a long-term conflict, saying last month that relations with Russia will have to be repaired “eventually”.

He believes the war between Russia and Ukraine could continue for years if the current pace of fighting persists. He noted that, despite significant losses, Russian forces have managed to occupy portions of Ukrainian territory. While the Ukrainian military continues to defend effectively, if conditions remain unchanged, the conflict could become prolonged, which, according to the Czech president, is unacceptable for Ukraine and Europe.

Ukrainian former top general and current UK ambassador Valerii Zaluzhnyi added to the darkening mood in another controversial interview last week. He warned that the war against Russia could drag on for another decade unless Western allies fundamentally rethink their approach to military support and strategy.

Previously, he clashed with Zelenskiy by saying the war had reached a stalemate in 2023 in another interview with Forbes, an unpopular message that ultimately got him fired. Nevertheless, Zaluzhnyi remains the most popular public figure in Ukraine and a possible future president.

EU cracks

More generally, Europe’s flagging enthusiasm for the war in Ukraine is also demonstrated by the fissures appearing in Europe’s commitment to Ukraine. So far only two countries – Germany and Norway – have publicly agreed to the new arrangement. Moreover, EU support was first reduced from all 27 member states to a reduced coalition of the willing, and more recently to the “E3” of Britain, France and Germany. London has yet to confirm it will participate in Trump’s Nato-will-pay deal, and Paris and Rome have explicitly said they will not.

The US government decisively dropped the entire responsibility for supporting Kyiv into Brussels’ lap following US President Donald Trump’s “big announcement” on July 14, saying European Nato allies will now pay for all US military supplies to Ukraine. In addition, Washington has made no new financial allocations to Kyiv since Trump took over, leaving it to Brussels to fund both the Ukrainian budget and the war.

The Nato-will-pay deal is already falling apart as the partners argue about how the participants will come up with the weapons, especially where badly needed Patriot air defence systems, will come from. Berlin and Oslo have made firm commitments to provide a total of three new Patriot batteries, but admitted this month those won't arrive until next month. Zelenskiy has asked for a total of ten new systems. Trump has refused to tap the US reserves of over 60 systems that could be sent tomorrow.

Tarnishing Ukraine image

The weariness with Ukraine is starting to become more palpable in comments from top European leaders and increasingly critical reporting on Ukraine’s leadership.

In just the last week, the Financial Times released a feature accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of becoming increasingly authoritarian and an unflattering profile of the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak. Politico also released a similar profile last month.

Ukraine’s relations have deteriorated sharply in just the last week after Zelenskiy signed off on the controversial Law 21414 that guts Ukraine’s anti-corruption reforms and immediately sparked the first anti-government protests since the war began in 2022. He was almost immediately forced into a humiliating climbdown and has proposed a new law to ensure the independence of the two anti-corruption bodies – National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) – that were set up in 2016 at the EU’s insistence.

However, the original Law 21414 remains in effect and Zelenskiy has added to the tension by signing off on a law to expand the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) by a third, which is under direct presidential control and seen as another step in the direction of the president’s increased authoritarian inclinations.

While public criticism of Zelenskiy and Ukraine’s government remains mooted in Western capitals, Brussels made its displeasure clear by reportedly freezing financial aid to Ukraine on July 28.

The latest hiccup comes as Ukraine’s EU accession bid also seems to have stalled. Brussels was supposed to open formal negotiation on the first chapter of the accession deal on July 18, but “multiple” EU members failed to agree to start talks, according to Ukraine’s Special Envoy to the EU, Olha Stefanishyna, who was immediately reassigned to lobbying duties in Washington as part of a reshuffle that analysts say will also consolidate Zelenskiy hold on power.