Life expectancy in Poland reached its highest recorded level in 2024, with men living on average 74.93 years and women 82.26 years, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported on July 30. 

The data come as Poland continues to face one of the sharpest population declines in the European Union, a problem that subsequent governments have failed to address or addressed inefficiently.

Compared to 2023, life expectancy rose by 0.3 years for both sexes, GUS data showed. Since 1990, male life expectancy has increased by 8.7 years, and female life expectancy by seven years.

For 15-year-olds, boys could expect to live an additional 60.36 years and girls 67.62 years—up by 7.3 and 5.8 years, respectively, compared with 1990. Among 45-year-olds, the expected remaining lifespan was 32.12 years for men and 38.30 years for women, an increase of 6.1 and 5.3 years, respectively, over the same period.

As Poles live longer, population numbers are dwindling. Eurostat reported earlier this month that Poland’s population dropped to just under 36.5mn on January 1, 2025, marking a decrease of 3.4 persons per 1,000.

This placed Poland alongside Estonia as the third most-affected country in the EU last year, following Latvia and Hungary. In total, eight member states recorded population losses, while the EU’s overall population rose by just over 1mn to 450.4mn, largely driven by post-pandemic migration.

According to Eurostat and the World Bank, Poland’s fertility rate in 2023 was around 1.2 children per woman – one of the worst replacement rates in the EU, where the average is 1.45, according to Eurostat.

Despite recent efforts to boost birth rates through child benefits and family subsidies such as the "500+" programme, Poland continues to struggle with demographic decline due to social, economic, and cultural factors that will increasingly take the edge off its economic growth in the future.

GUS noted that Poland registered only 252,000 births in 2024—the lowest since the Second World War—compared with 409,000 deaths. It was the twelfth consecutive year in which deaths outnumbered births. 

The total fertility rate fell to just below 1.1, among the lowest worldwide. This placed Poland behind countries such as Japan (1.2), Germany and the United Kingdom (both 1.4), and far below France (1.6). Only eight countries globally reported lower fertility, including South Korea and Ukraine. Malta has the lowest replacement rate in the EU with 1.1. 

The longevity of Poles is good news as Europe faces a demographic crisis that will take Emerging Europe population levels back to the early 20^th century. Nowhere in the EU is the replacement rate above the 2.1 children per woman needed to keep the population size stable.

Russia has been suffering from a demographic decline since 2008 after the collapse of life expectancy from the 1990s, made worse by the war in Ukraine. Ukraine currently has the worst demographics in the world with death rates three times higher than birth rates. However, even in the more developed parts of Europe, fertility rates have plunged: there are parts of Italy where the rate has fallen below one – half the rate needed to keep the population stable.

The longevity of Poles will add to a growing pension crisis as populations across the Continent age fuelling a demographic crisis that will take Emerging Europe population levels back to the early 20^th century. Even in the more developed parts of Europe, fertility rates have plunged: there are parts of Italy where the rate has fallen below one – half the rate needed to keep the population stable.

Nowhere in the EU is the replacement rate above the 2.1 children per woman needed to keep the population size stable.

Russia has been suffering from a demographic decline since 2008 after the collapse of life expectancy from the 1990s, made worse by the war in Ukraine. However,  thanks to “Putin’s babies” – a comprehensive maternity promotion programme that Russian President Vladimir Putin introduced in 2000 as soon as he took office – the Kremlin has managed to avoid the worst, but Russia’s replacement rate remains a depressed 1.4.

Unsurprisingly, Ukraine currently has the worst demographics in the world with death rates three times higher than birth rates. Officially the replacement rate is 1.2, but experts say the real number has collapsed due to war as the bulk of the circa six million refugees that fled the country are women of child-breeding age.

Reversing the trend

GUS warned that reversing the trend would be difficult after decades of low birth rates and a shrinking number of women of reproductive age. In 1990, Poland’s fertility rate stood at nearly 2, almost at the level demographers say can ensure replaceability of generations. 

By 2024, however, women were having their first child at an average age of 29.1, compared with 22.7 in 1990. Meanwhile, 23.8% of the population was above retirement age, up from 12.8% three decades earlier.

There are many drivers behind Poland’s demographic decline. Experts cite the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, housing shortages, and changing social values - the latter often considered key.

Researchers have also pointed to restrictive reproductive laws, particularly the near-total abortion ban, as a factor discouraging family planning.

The previous Law and Justice (PiS) government acknowledged in 2020 that its flagship child benefit programme - nearly unconditional monthly payout for every child - had not delivered a sustained demographic impact. 

The current administration, in office since December 2023, has retained these payments and expanded workplace support for parents. It has also reinstated public funding for in-vitro fertilisation.

Immigration has helped ease labour shortages, but the issue has triggered political tensions. Parties across the spectrum have warned of risks to cohesion and identity, even as foreign-born workers fill demographic gaps.

Poland’s population trajectory is consistent with trends across post-communist EU member states, many of which face long-term decline and ageing that some experts warn could bring national populations back to pre-First World War levels.