Polish industrial production growth surges to 16.7% y/y in December

Polish industrial production growth surges to 16.7% y/y in December
By Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw January 24, 2022

Poland’s industrial production expanded 16.7% year-on-year in constant prices in December, after growing 15.2% y/y the preceding month, unadjusted data from statistical office GUS showed on January 21.

The expansion shot up well above the consensus line of 13% y/y. Electricity generation drove the December result, alongside more working days than in the same month in 2020, analysts noted. 

Seasonally adjusted, industrial production growth eased to 13.7% y/y in December after an expansion of 15.2% y/y in November. The monthly reading showed an unadjusted decrease of 2.9% (+5.3% month-on-month in November) and also a fall of 0.2% upon adjustment (+6.5% in November).

Broken down by the main segments and unadjusted terms, output jumped 54.2% y/y in the utility sector in December, compared to an expansion of 47.7% y/y the preceding month.

Production also grew 13.9% y/y (+13% in November) in manufacturing. Production also expanded 9.6% y/y in water supply and waste management, after adding 12.5pp the preceding month. 

Output slid 0.9% y/y (+4% in November) in mining and quarrying.

Overall, production increased in 30 out of 34 industrial segments in December in y/y terms, compared to 31 in November. 

The outlook for Poland’s industrial sector remains bright – with caveats regarding the return of supply chain bottlenecks due to the new wave of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic.

The December reading of industrial production – and also of other high-frequency data – remain supportive of the full-year GDP growth of around 5.5%-6% in 2021, analysts say.

Poland suffered a pandemic-driven recession of 2.7% in 2020, one of the mildest contractions in Europe.