Gasoline and diesel prices in Kyrgyzstan are reportedly hitting all-time highs because of the disruption caused to fuel supplies by attacks on Russian refineries mounted by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The Central Asian country relies on Russia for around nine-tenths of its fuel. There are no easy alternatives to turn to for fuel deliveries that could replace missing Russian supplies.

Azattyk Asia on September 16 cited the Association of Oil Traders in Kyrgyzstan as saying that gasoline and diesel prices in the country have risen sharply in recent weeks – and that they could go much higher.

As bne IntelliNews reported on September 16, Ukraine is expanding its campaign of trying to cut the Kremlin off from its oil export income by targeting Russia’s oil refining and pipeline assets, using its new long-range drones and missiles. Ukraine conducted 17 strikes on 12 Russian oil refineries in 45 days, the Ministry of Defence in Kyiv reported at the start of this week. These refineries represent 42% of total oil refining capacity in Russia.

The numbers on gas station price displays in Kyrgyzstan are changing rapidly.

At the start of this week, one litre of AI-92 in Bishkek was priced at 70 som ($0.80), while diesel was at nearly 80 som ($0.91), Azattyk said. In neighbouring Kazakhstan, which has massive oil resources and a substantial oil refining industry, AI-92 costs around half what it does in Kyrgyzstan.

However, the Kyrgyz government has issued an assurance that there will be no critical shortages of fuel for motorists.

Given its high reliance on consumer goods imports trucked into the country, “fuel inflation” quickly turns into “food inflation” and other types of consumer inflation in Kyrgyzstan.

In August, annual inflation in the country of 7.2mn hit a two-year high of 9.5%, moving up from 8.8% in July, the national statistical committee said on September 15.

Turning to Kazakhstan for a major expansion of oil product shipments into Kyrgyzstan is not an option for Bishkek as the Kazakhs have their own tightness in domestic fuel markets to deal with and are currently applying stringent restrictions to fuel exports.

Options for importing fuel from other countries are under discussion, but there would be many difficulties to overcome such as a lack of transit logistics and infrastructure in place.

Kanat Eshatov, head of the Association of Oil Traders, told Azattyk: "In addition to Kazakhstan, there is Turkmenistan, Iran, Azerbaijan… the main task of oil traders is to prevent a deficit."

For now, Kyrgyzstan remains hostage to the Russian refining situation.

Official data shows Kyrgyzstan’s fuel reserves could supply the market for a month and a half if required.

As a member of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), Kyrgyzstan is supposed to have Russian guarantees in place on fuel supplies, but whether the Kremlin can actually maintain supplies at the usual levels in the face of the Ukrainian campaign to destroy much of Russia’s refining capacity is another question.