Poland’s economy continued to outperform in the second quarter despite mounting global trade tensions, according to Nicholas Farr, Emerging Europe Economist at Capital Economics.

“The 0.8% q/q growth in the Polish economy in Q2 was a bit weaker than consensus expectations, but still confirms that the economy maintained solid momentum last quarter and supports our view that Poland will be one of the best performing economies in the EU this year,” Farr said.

The pace of expansion followed growth of 0.7% in the first quarter and came in below the consensus forecast of 1.0% but above Capital Economics’ own projection of 0.5%. Farr noted that the statistical release did not include a full expenditure breakdown, but pointed to monthly data showing “particularly strong growth in retail sales in Q2 (+2.5% q/q), which suggests that consumer-facing sectors are continuing to provide a key boost to activity”.

Industrial production also expanded by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, indicating what Farr described as “a limited impact from US tariffs on the economy so far”.

The 15% baseline tariff on US goods imports from the EU, which took effect on August 7, is up from the previous 10% level. However, Farr argued that “the economy will remain resilient” due to Poland’s low export dependence on the US and ongoing support from EU funding and rising household incomes.

“For now, we’re maintaining our forecast for growth of 3.0% over 2025 as a whole,” he said.

Stronger-than-expected inflation figures for July, combined with the resilient GDP data, are also likely to influence monetary policy.

“The robust performance of the economy, alongside slightly stronger than expected inflation data for July, also suggests to us that the central bank is unlikely to accelerate its easing cycle next month,” Farr said. He expects policymakers to “deliver another 25bp interest rate cut at the meeting on 3rd September”.