Poland’s population is projected to decline by 31.6% to 25.6mn by 2100, marking the third-largest drop in the European Union, according to Eurostat data released last week. Only Lithuania and Latvia are expected to record steeper declines.

Eurostat forecasts Lithuania’s population will fall by 33.4%, while Latvia’s will shrink by 33.9%. Across the EU, the population is expected to decrease by around 53mn, or nearly 12%, by the end of the century.

Poland is set to be among the fastest-declining countries in the bloc. Its population is forecast to fall below 37mn by 2030, reaching 36.7mn, and then drop to 32.9mn by 2050. The total is expected to fall below 30mn by 2070, at 29.3mn, before declining further to 25.6mn by 2100.

Poland’s national statistics agency GUS warned last year that the decline could be steeper than previously expected.

GUS's revised projections, based on persistently low fertility, indicate the population could fall to 29.4mn by 2060, around 1.5mn lower than a 2023 estimate and below Eurostat’s forecast of 31.2mn for the same year.

In 2024, Poland’s fertility rate dropped to 1.099 children per woman, among the lowest globally. Migration has partly mitigated the decline, with Poland experiencing some of the highest inflows in the EU, including a large number of Ukrainians following Russia’s invasion in 2022.

Eurostat noted that its figures exclude Ukrainians under temporary protection. As of February, nearly one million such individuals were in Poland, with total Ukrainian residents, including workers and students, estimated at around 1.5mn.

However, stricter migration policies introduced by the incumbent government have reduced new arrivals.

Meanwhile, efforts to boost the number of births – such as child benefits or IVF funding – have failed, and the number of working-age people is projected to fall sharply while the proportion of retirees is to rise.

Overall, the EU population is projected to peak in 2029 at 453mn before entering a sustained decline to 398mn by 2100, Eurostat said.

The proportion of those aged zero to 19 in the EU will fall from 20% to 17% between 2025 and 2100, while the share of those aged 20 to 64 will decline from 58% to 50%.